US/Europe Event-Driven Analyst

John DeMasi

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ferguson-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28304:1" rel="noopener">Ferguson PLC (FERG LN)</a> is a UK-listed, FTSE 100 distributor of plumbing and heating products in the USA, Canada, and the UK. In the latest fiscal year ended July 31, 2019, the UK accounted for only about 10.2% of revenues and about 4% of trading profits, with the balance coming mainly from the USA, and to a much smaller extent, from Canada.Despite the Company’s predominant focus in the USA, it has traditionally traded at the more modest multiples of British distributors. On June 13, 2019, U.S. activist investment firm Trian Fund Management announced it had acquired a 5.98% position in FERG LN though affiliates including T1F LN, then worth approximately £736 million.Trian stated it believes Ferguson is an attractive business that trades at a discount to comparable U.S. peers. It also said it looks forward to working with Ferguson’s management to explore and implement initiatives that it believes can create long-term shareholder value.This research piece looks, from an event-driven point of view, at Ferguson’s business, valuation and potential catalyst to address any undervaluation.

Ferguson PLC (FERG LN) is a UK-listed, FTSE 100 distributor of plumbing and heating products in the USA, Canada, and the UK. In the latest fiscal year ended July 31, 2019, the UK accounted for only about 10.2% of revenues and about 4% of trading profits, with the balance coming mainly from the USA, and to a much smaller extent, from Canada.Despite the Company’s predominant focus in the USA, it has traditionally traded at the more modest multiples of British distributors. On June 13, 2019, U.S. activist investment firm Trian Fund Management announced it had acquired a 5.98% position in FERG LN though affiliates including T1F LN, then worth approximately £736 million.Trian stated it believes Ferguson is an attractive business that trades at a discount to comparable U.S. peers. It also said it looks forward to working with Ferguson’s management to explore and implement initiatives that it believes can create long-term shareholder value.This research piece looks, from an event-driven point of view, at Ferguson’s business, valuation and potential catalyst to address any undervaluation.

Ferguson Plc (FERG LN) – Plumbing for Value

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Dry bulk normalisation continues; Tankers trend down in line with our expectations, Introduce Offshore sector<ul><li>Dry bulk stocks impacted by market malaise and company-specific events</li><li>Tide is turning for tanker operators; port sector transitioning to value play</li><li>Rally in offshore stocks could be a dead cat bounce; retracement in oil prices affect gas shipping</li></ul>

Dry bulk normalisation continues; Tankers trend down in line with our expectations, Introduce Offshore sectorDry bulk stocks impacted by market malaise and company-specific eventsTide is turning for tanker operators; port sector transitioning to value playRally in offshore stocks could be a dead cat bounce; retracement in oil prices affect gas shipping

DMER - Maritime Financial Insights -  July 2016

Since the GFC, the global port operators have been under-performing the MSCI world index. The divergence has increased in the last 18 months and is now reaching an extreme. Does this make the sector a buy? We believe the industry dynamics are changing and the sector is pricing in  a structural slowdown in global trade. The growth industry has matured and is now more akin to valuations given to a utilities business i.e. P/E compression is in play despite still strong margins and earnings. We believe that ports sector on a macro basis is moving from a growth stock to a value stock which commands stable but lower P/E.  Wider implications for this would be the investor profile for the ports will change as more value investors get in and growth investors move away. We expect Chinese operators to get aggressive on M&amp;A and cheapest valuation in the sector in years on account of structural weakness to drive M&amp;A.

Since the GFC, the global port operators have been under-performing the MSCI world index. The divergence has increased in the last 18 months and is now reaching an extreme. Does this make the sector a buy? We believe the industry dynamics are changing and the sector is pricing in  a structural slowdown in global trade. The growth industry has matured and is now more akin to valuations given to a utilities business i.e. P/E compression is in play despite still strong margins and earnings. We believe that ports sector on a macro basis is moving from a growth stock to a value stock which commands stable but lower P/E.  Wider implications for this would be the investor profile for the ports will change as more value investors get in and growth investors move away. We expect Chinese operators to get aggressive on M&amp;A and cheapest valuation in the sector in years on account of structural weakness to drive M&amp;A. 

Port Operators - Valuations Downshift on Structural Changes

Frontier and emerging markets (Vietnam)

Dylan Waller

Nomadic Equity

Transition from the Irish Stock Exchange to the London Stock ExchangeDragon Capital’s fund <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22754" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22754">Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited</a>, which currently trades on the Irish Stock Exchange, may trade on the main market of the London Stock Exchange next month.  The company plans to hold an Extraordinary General Meeting on June the 21st to vote on the approval of this transfer, which is expected to potentially take place next month.  The fund currently manages over $850 million, and is most notable for…

Transition from the Irish Stock Exchange to the London Stock ExchangeDragon Capital’s fund Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited, which currently trades on the Irish Stock Exchange, may trade on the main market of the London Stock Exchange next month.  The company plans to hold an Extraordinary General Meeting on June the 21st to vote on the approval of this transfer, which is expected to potentially take place next month.  The fund currently manages over $850 million, and is most notable for…

Dragon Capital's VEIL Fund: A 3rd London Listing for Vietnam May Emerge Next Month

Last year saw a record amount of container-ship capacity hit the water. We take a look at which operators accepted delivery and which trades they deployed them in. Record delieveries, record maximum ship size.  Last year was full of records in the container shipping industry, but unfortunately for carriers they were mostly of the unwanted variety. One such record (made by bad by virtue of the second worst ever demand growth) was a record intake of new ships. There were 209 new ships that hit the…

Last year saw a record amount of container-ship capacity hit the water. We take a look at which operators accepted delivery and which trades they deployed them in. Record delieveries, record maximum ship size.  Last year was full of records in the container shipping industry, but unfortunately for carriers they were mostly of the unwanted variety. One such record (made by bad by virtue of the second worst ever demand growth) was a record intake of new ships. There were 209 new ships that hit the…

Container Shipping - 2015 Full of Records, Big Ships, Super Size Me and It Ain't Over Yet

United Kingdom

Travis Perkins plc markets and distributes products to the UK construction and building trade industries, including timber, building, and plumbing and heating materials.

Travis Perkins (TPK LN)

Ferguson Plc (FERG LN) – Plumbing for Value

Ferguson PLC (FERG LN) is a UK-listed, FTSE 100 distributor of plumbing and heating products in the USA, Canada, and the UK. In the latest fiscal...

John DeMasi

DMER - Maritime Financial Insights - July 2016

Dry bulk normalisation continues; Tankers trend down in line with our expectations, Introduce Offshore sector Dry bulk stocks impacted by market...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Port Operators - Valuations Downshift on Structural Changes

Since the GFC, the global port operators have been under-performing the MSCI world index. The divergence has increased in the last 18 months and is...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Dragon Capital's VEIL Fund: A 3rd London Listing for Vietnam May Emerge Next Month

Transition from the Irish Stock Exchange to the London Stock ExchangeDragon Capital’s fund Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited, which currently...

Nomadic Equity

Container Shipping - 2015 Full of Records, Big Ships, Super Size Me and It Ain't Over Yet

Last year saw a record amount of container-ship capacity hit the water. We take a look at which operators accepted delivery and which trades they...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research