Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Our range for TSMC's spread trading appears to be working. Premium has rebounded lately and we would Short if breaks above 9.8%.</li>
<li>Our UMC trading range also appears to be working. We should Short if the premium increases slightly further to break 1%.</li>
<li>One can consider Shorting ASE's ADR premium at the current 10.8% premium level. After latest premium spike, risk appears skewed to the downside in the coming weeks.</li>
</ul>


Our range for TSMC's spread trading appears to be working. Premium has rebounded lately and we would Short if breaks above 9.8%.
Our UMC trading range also appears to be working. We should Short if the premium increases slightly further to break 1%.
One can consider Shorting ASE's ADR premium at the current 10.8% premium level. After latest premium spike, risk appears skewed to the downside in the coming weeks.


Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: TSMC & UMC Trading Ranges Working; Short ASE Spread at Latest Level

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> drives <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/king-yuan-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6630:1" rel="noopener">King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)</a> stock price, but their growth is still limited in 2023F.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/king-yuan-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6630:1" rel="noopener">King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)</a> acts as a buffer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a> end demand during 2023F.</li>
<li>Although it is not yet the time to reverse the downturn in 2023F, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/king-yuan-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6630:1" rel="noopener">King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)</a> is expected to continue its upward trend throughout 2H23F.</li>
</ul>



NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) drives King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT) stock price, but their growth is still limited in 2023F.

King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT) acts as a buffer for Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) end demand during 2023F.
Although it is not yet the time to reverse the downturn in 2023F, King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT) is expected to continue its upward trend throughout 2H23F.


KYEC (2449.TT): Beneficiary of AI with Contribution of CoWoS Testing

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Sep 22nd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD13.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Accton Tech, Alchip Tech, Ap Memory Tech, Asmedia Tech, Bizlink Holding, Faraday Tech.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Sep 22nd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD13.6bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Accton Tech, Alchip Tech, Ap Memory Tech, Asmedia Tech, Bizlink Holding, Faraday Tech.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Sep 22nd): Accton Tech, Alchip Tech, Ap Memory Tech, Asmedia Tech

<ul>
<li>There is a misconception that "MediaTek is gaining the Google TPU v7 project entirely in 2024-25F."</li>
<li>Transsion Holding is placing a new order with MediaTek in 4Q23F, which is larger than ~25mn and has the lowest ASP.</li>
<li>Our current view remains bearish on smartphone demand for 2H23F.</li>
</ul>


There is a misconception that "MediaTek is gaining the Google TPU v7 project entirely in 2024-25F."
Transsion Holding is placing a new order with MediaTek in 4Q23F, which is larger than ~25mn and has the lowest ASP.
Our current view remains bearish on smartphone demand for 2H23F.


MediaTek (2454.TT): Gaining Google TPU V7 Project Entirely Could Be a Misconception

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The upcoming demand is expected to reduce in 4Q23F, with the most obvious decline in 40nm and 8" demand.</li>
<li>Wafer ASP is expected to remain relatively stable until 4Q22F, even though revenue is not anticipated to pick up in 1H24F.</li>
<li>We expect the market to reach its lowest point in the first half of 2024F. The most likely scenario indicates a potential recovery around the third quarter of 2024F.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming demand is expected to reduce in 4Q23F, with the most obvious decline in 40nm and 8" demand.
Wafer ASP is expected to remain relatively stable until 4Q22F, even though revenue is not anticipated to pick up in 1H24F.
We expect the market to reach its lowest point in the first half of 2024F. The most likely scenario indicates a potential recovery around the third quarter of 2024F.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Revenue Can Be Downward a Bit in 4Q23F.

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)

Taiwan Dual Listings Monitor: TSMC & UMC Trading Ranges Working; Short ASE Spread at Latest Level

There has been a general bounce in ADR premiums recently. If they go a bit higher then one can consider shorting TSMC and UMC premiums; we provide...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

KYEC (2449.TT): Beneficiary of AI with Contribution of CoWoS Testing

It is not yet the time to judge, the upturn in 2023F, KYEC is expected to continue its upward trend throughout 2H23F. Nvidia is the driver of...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Sep 22nd): Accton Tech, Alchip Tech, Ap Memory Tech, Asmedia Tech

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Accton Tech, Alchip Tech, Ap Memory Tech, Asmedia...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MediaTek (2454.TT): Gaining Google TPU V7 Project Entirely Could Be a Misconception

There is a misconception "MediaTek is gaining the Google TPU v7 project in 2024-25F." Transsion Holding is placing a new order with MediaTek in...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Revenue Can Be Downward a Bit in 4Q23F.

The upcoming demand is expected to drop in 4Q23, with the most significant decline in 40nm and 8" demand. We expect the market to reach its lowest...

Patrick Liao

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