Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> is likely to see that there could be a decline of around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.</li>
<li>In terms of revenue contribution, Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan account for approximately 40%, 20%, 15%, 15%, and 10% respectively.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> may give up technology development at 40nm and above and transfer them to Vanguard.</li>
</ul>



Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) is likely to see that there could be a decline of around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.
In terms of revenue contribution, Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan account for approximately 40%, 20%, 15%, 15%, and 10% respectively.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) may give up technology development at 40nm and above and transfer them to Vanguard.


Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Revenue Might Decline ~10% QoQ.

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The wafer demand outlook for 1Q24F should be around flat, but ASP (Average Selling Price) is expected to decline by negative mid-single digits.</li>
<li>Compared to 4Q23, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a>'s foundry demand is larger and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>'s foundry demand is downsized in 1Q24F. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6450:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> are currently discussing the allocation issue of 12nm capacity.</li>
</ul>


The wafer demand outlook for 1Q24F should be around flat, but ASP (Average Selling Price) is expected to decline by negative mid-single digits.
Compared to 4Q23, Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)'s foundry demand is larger and Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)'s foundry demand is downsized in 1Q24F. 

United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT) and Intel Corp (INTC US) are currently discussing the allocation issue of 12nm capacity.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q24F Outlook, the Wafer Demand of MediaTek and Samsung.

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 29th which has an aggregated holding worth USD730.2bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,532mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Umc, and Asia Vital.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 29th which has an aggregated holding worth USD730.2bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,532mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y.
We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Umc, and Asia Vital.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 29th): Foreign Insti Increased Holdings

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 29th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD14.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Acer, China Airlines, Chung-Hsin, Quanta Computer, Yang Ming Marine, Wiwynn, Realtek Semi, Umc.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 29th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD14.1bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Acer, China Airlines, Chung-Hsin, Quanta Computer, Yang Ming Marine, Wiwynn, Realtek Semi, Umc.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Dec 29th): Short Covering Towards Year End

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Nvidia Vs. Taiwan Short Basket: Hedge Working; CES 2024 Likely Positive for Nvidia Vs. Basket</li>
<li>Silicon Motion: Next Wave of the Memory Recovery; High-End NAND Prices More Than Doubled From Lows</li>
<li>AI PC Reality Check: PC Upgrade Cycle Ahead, But Worth a 50% 1M Acer Rally? Long Dell Vs. Short Acer</li>
</ul>


Nvidia Vs. Taiwan Short Basket: Hedge Working; CES 2024 Likely Positive for Nvidia Vs. Basket
Silicon Motion: Next Wave of the Memory Recovery; High-End NAND Prices More Than Doubled From Lows
AI PC Reality Check: PC Upgrade Cycle Ahead, But Worth a 50% 1M Acer Rally? Long Dell Vs. Short Acer


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Stocks At Highs & Looking for Laggards? CES 2024 to Showcase Edge AI

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Revenue Might Decline ~10% QoQ.

TSMC may see a 10% decline in 1Q24F, with Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan being major revenue contributors. TSMC might also transfer 40nm and...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q24F Outlook, the Wafer Demand of MediaTek and Samsung.

The wafer demand for 1Q24F is expected to be flat, but the ASP is projected to decline. MediaTek's demand is larger while Samsung's is downsized....

Patrick Liao

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 29th): Foreign Insti Increased Holdings

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Umc, and Asia Vital.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Dec 29th): Short Covering Towards Year End

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Acer, China Airlines, Chung-Hsin, Quanta Computer,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Stocks At Highs & Looking for Laggards? CES 2024 to Showcase Edge AI

Summary: Nvidia is expected to perform well at CES 2024, while Silicon Motion predicts a memory recovery and increased NAND prices. The PC upgrade...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q24F Revenue Might Decline ~10% QoQ.

​TSMC may see a 10% decline in 1Q24F, with Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan being major revenue contributors. TSMC might also transfer 40nm and...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q24F Outlook, the Wafer Demand of MediaTek and Samsung.

​The wafer demand for 1Q24F is expected to be flat, but the ASP is projected to decline. MediaTek's demand is larger while Samsung's is downsized....

Patrick Liao

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 29th): Foreign Insti Increased Holdings

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Umc, and Asia Vital.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Dec 29th): Short Covering Towards Year End

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Acer, China Airlines, Chung-Hsin, Quanta Computer,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Stocks At Highs & Looking for Laggards? CES 2024 to Showcase Edge AI

​Summary: Nvidia is expected to perform well at CES 2024, while Silicon Motion predicts a memory recovery and increased NAND prices. The PC upgrade...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC may see a 10% decline in 1Q24F, with Taiwan, US, China, Europe, and Japan being major revenue contributors. TSMC might also transfer 40nm and...

The wafer demand for 1Q24F is expected to be flat, but the ASP is projected to decline. MediaTek's demand is larger while Samsung's is downsized....

Summary: Nvidia is expected to perform well at CES 2024, while Silicon Motion predicts a memory recovery and increased NAND prices. The PC upgrade...