Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>Headquartered in Mumbai, UPL Limited is a global agrochemical company listed on the Indian stock exchange.</li>
<li>It is the fifth-largest generic agrochemical company in the world (after Bayer, Dupont, Syngenta and BASF), with revenues of over USD 5.2 bn in FY 2023-24 (following the acquisition of Arysta LifeScience in 2019 for USD 4.2 bn).</li>
<li>The bond issuer, UPL Corp, is 78% owned by UPL Limited, with TPG and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority each holding 11% stakes. UPL Limited is 27.9% owned by the family of Rajnikant Shroff, who is known as the Crop Protection King.</li>
</ul>


Headquartered in Mumbai, UPL Limited is a global agrochemical company listed on the Indian stock exchange.
It is the fifth-largest generic agrochemical company in the world (after Bayer, Dupont, Syngenta and BASF), with revenues of over USD 5.2 bn in FY 2023-24 (following the acquisition of Arysta LifeScience in 2019 for USD 4.2 bn).
The bond issuer, UPL Corp, is 78% owned by UPL Limited, with TPG and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority each holding 11% stakes. UPL Limited is 27.9% owned by the family of Rajnikant Shroff, who is known as the Crop Protection King.


UPL Limited - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-20776'>UPL Ltd</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.UPL Ltd

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-13359'>Lenovo</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-20776'>UPL Ltd</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-24409'>Xiaomi Corp</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.LenovoUPL LtdXiaomi Corp

Morning Views Asia: Lenovo, UPL Ltd, Xiaomi Corp

UPL Limited's Q4/23-24 results appear to be better than in the past three quarters, with lower declines registered for revenues and EBITDA. That said, we note that this was against a low comparison base, with Q4/22-23 marking the beginning of the downturn. The company has been severely affected by post-patent competition and cheap supply from China, with these not likely to improve much in the near term. The financial risk profile deteriorated significantly, and is now not consistent with the Ba1/BB/BB+ rating. While liquidity appears to be adequate, we expect it to weaken during the year as the company takes on working-capital debt. We highlight that while leverage and the liquidity profile tend to be better at financial year-end, they typically deteriorate significantly during the year. However, the USD 500 mn right issuance should shore up the balance sheet significantly.

  UPL Limited's Q4/23-24 results appear to be better than in the past three quarters, with lower declines registered for revenues and EBITDA. That said, we note that this was against a low comparison base, with Q4/22-23 marking the beginning of the downturn. The company has been severely affected by post-patent competition and cheap supply from China, with these not likely to improve much in the near term. The financial risk profile deteriorated significantly, and is now not consistent with the Ba1/BB/BB+ rating. While liquidity appears to be adequate, we expect it to weaken during the year as the company takes on working-capital debt. We highlight that while leverage and the liquidity profile tend to be better at financial year-end, they typically deteriorate significantly during the year. However, the USD 500 mn right issuance should shore up the balance sheet significantly. 

UPL Limited - Earnings Flash - FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/upl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20776:1" rel="noopener">UPL Ltd (UPLL IN)</a>'s Q4 FY23 results show a significant improvement in margins to 13% after a drastic fall to 1% in December 2023, despite a 15% YoY revenue decline.</li>
<li>Revenue drops were driven by lower prices and high-cost inventory liquidation, yet margin recovery signals operational improvements and potential future stability.</li>
<li>Planning to reduce the debt by raising capital via right issue as well as IPO of Advanta.</li>
</ul>



UPL Ltd (UPLL IN)'s Q4 FY23 results show a significant improvement in margins to 13% after a drastic fall to 1% in December 2023, despite a 15% YoY revenue decline.
Revenue drops were driven by lower prices and high-cost inventory liquidation, yet margin recovery signals operational improvements and potential future stability.
Planning to reduce the debt by raising capital via right issue as well as IPO of Advanta.


India

UPL Ltd. manufactures, distributes and exports off-patent agrochemicals. The Company also manufactures phosphorus & phosphorus-based compounds and its products include herbicides, fungicides, insecticides, fumigants and rodenticides. United Phosphorus also manufactures industrial chemicals, specialty chemicals and chloralkaline products

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UPL Ltd (UPLL IN)

UPL Limited - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Headquartered in Mumbai, UPL Limited is a global agrochemical company listed on the Indian stock exchange. It is the fifth-largest generic...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: UPL Ltd

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Lenovo, UPL Ltd, Xiaomi Corp

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

UPL Limited - Earnings Flash - FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

UPL Limited's Q4/23-24 results appear to be better than in the past three quarters, with lower declines registered for revenues and EBITDA. That...

Lucror Analytics

What’s Wrong with UPL?

UPL Ltd's Q4 FY23 results show margin improvement to 13% despite revenue decline, signaling operational improvements whereas Q1 is still expected...

Nimish Maheshwari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

UPL Limited - ESG Report - Lucror Analytics

Headquartered in Mumbai, UPL Limited is a global agrochemical company listed on the Indian stock exchange. It is the fifth-largest generic...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: UPL Ltd

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Lenovo, UPL Ltd, Xiaomi Corp

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

UPL Limited - Earnings Flash - FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

UPL Limited's Q4/23-24 results appear to be better than in the past three quarters, with lower declines registered for revenues and EBITDA. That...

Lucror Analytics

What’s Wrong with UPL?

​UPL Ltd's Q4 FY23 results show margin improvement to 13% despite revenue decline, signaling operational improvements whereas Q1 is still expected...

Nimish Maheshwari

UPL Ltd's Q4 FY23 results show margin improvement to 13% despite revenue decline, signaling operational improvements whereas Q1 is still expected...