Research from Atrium Research, Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research

Research from Atrium Research

Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on public equities in North America. Our investment philosophy takes a 3-5 year view on equities currently being overlooked by the market. Our research process emphasizes understanding the key performance metrics for each specific company, trustworthy management teams, unit economics, and an in-depth valuation analysis. 

Our research product includes in-depth initiation reports, research notes, thematic research pieces, and company fact sheets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Uranium spot prices are up 84% since our last report in late 2022, yet we still expect further momentum in the sector.</li>
<li>The sentiment on nuclear power from governments around the world has begun to shift, with many nations ramping plans for reactors.</li>
<li>While new mines begin production and future mines achieve financing, we continue to believe the current spot price is too low in the short term.</li>
</ul>


Uranium spot prices are up 84% since our last report in late 2022, yet we still expect further momentum in the sector.
The sentiment on nuclear power from governments around the world has begun to shift, with many nations ramping plans for reactors.
While new mines begin production and future mines achieve financing, we continue to believe the current spot price is too low in the short term.


IsoEnergy Ltd - Uranium: Only Getting Started

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>What you need to know: We are expecting demand for uranium to scale upward over the next 5+ years due to decarbonization and energy security trends</li><li>Limited brownfield projects and the lack of incentive for greenfield projects at $50/lb U3O8 will create a supply/demand imbalance</li><li>The new utility contracting cycle and Sprott Trust will continue to create price momentum for spot uranium While demand for uranium continues to progress higher due to shifting government policies to meet decarbonization goals and the newfound focus on energy independence, spot prices remain too low to incentivize new production.</li></ul>

What you need to know: We are expecting demand for uranium to scale upward over the next 5+ years due to decarbonization and energy security trendsLimited brownfield projects and the lack of incentive for greenfield projects at $50/lb U3O8 will create a supply/demand imbalanceThe new utility contracting cycle and Sprott Trust will continue to create price momentum for spot uranium While demand for uranium continues to progress higher due to shifting government policies to meet decarbonization goals and the newfound focus on energy independence, spot prices remain too low to incentivize new production.

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

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<ul>
<li>Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies</li>
<li>LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase</li>
<li>Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand</li>
<li>Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022</li>
<li>Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050</li>
<li> Primary Uranium sector LT SELL</li>
</ul>
We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.


Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies
LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase
Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand
Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022
Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050
 Primary Uranium sector LT SELL

We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

United States

Ur-Energy, Inc. explores for uranium.  The Company operates in Nunavut in Canada and Wyoming in the United States.

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Ur-Energy Inc (URE CN)

IsoEnergy Ltd - Uranium: Only Getting Started

The sentiment on nuclear power from governments around the world has begun to shift, with many nations ramping plans for reactors.

Atrium Research

Uranium: Asymmetry at its Finest

What you need to know: We are expecting demand for uranium to scale upward over the next 5+ years due to decarbonization and energy security trends

Atrium Research

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies LT contracts & speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot...

Boost Research

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