External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We believe the supply surplus may be buffered by demand from batteries and SS; our FY24-25F Ni price assumptions at US$18k/17.5k/t</li><li>We see NPI demand remaining robust as global SS demand is expected to grow by 5%, implying 9.5% higher nickel demand in FY24F.</li><li>We resume coverage with an OW rating as we expect market balances to stabilize; our pecking order: NCKL&gt; MDKA&gt; MBMA&gt; ANTM&gt; INCO</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We believe the supply surplus may be buffered by demand from batteries and SS; our FY24-25F Ni price assumptions at US$18k/17.5k/tWe see NPI demand remaining robust as global SS demand is expected to grow by 5%, implying 9.5% higher nickel demand in FY24F.We resume coverage with an OW rating as we expect market balances to stabilize; our pecking order: NCKL&gt; MDKA&gt; MBMA&gt; ANTM&gt; INCOContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining: Better earnings prospect from possible price bottoming (OVERWEIGHT)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>INCO’s revenue throughout FY23 stood in-line with our estimates of USD1,209.7mn, coming in at USD1,232.3 (reflecting 101.9% of MNCS' estimate), growing by +4.5% YoY on solid production performance.</li><li>Production jumped +17.7% YoY to 70.7k tons, credits due to their impeccable maintenance implementation throughout the year.</li><li>The bottom-line stood at USD274.3mn, overshooting our estimate of USD221.2mn for the year (reflecting 124.0%), growing by +36.9% YoY despite ASP slump (-10.4% YoY to USD17.3k/ton in FY23).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

INCO’s revenue throughout FY23 stood in-line with our estimates of USD1,209.7mn, coming in at USD1,232.3 (reflecting 101.9% of MNCS' estimate), growing by +4.5% YoY on solid production performance.Production jumped +17.7% YoY to 70.7k tons, credits due to their impeccable maintenance implementation throughout the year.The bottom-line stood at USD274.3mn, overshooting our estimate of USD221.2mn for the year (reflecting 124.0%), growing by +36.9% YoY despite ASP slump (-10.4% YoY to USD17.3k/ton in FY23).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

INCO IJ - MNC Sekuritas Equity Report February 20, 2024

<ul><li>While we expect LME nickel price to decline further in FY24F, we project NPI price will decouple and stabilize at US$14k/t.</li><li>Given view of stabilizing NPI prices and falling cost, we expect earnings outperformance for producers with volume growth.</li><li>We maintain sector OW and prefer nickel names with high volume growth improvements such as NCKL and MBMA.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

While we expect LME nickel price to decline further in FY24F, we project NPI price will decouple and stabilize at US$14k/t.Given view of stabilizing NPI prices and falling cost, we expect earnings outperformance for producers with volume growth.We maintain sector OW and prefer nickel names with high volume growth improvements such as NCKL and MBMA.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nickel: Expect NPI Price to Decouple and Stabilize

<ul><li>We expect INCO’s FY24F production volume to be sustained similar as FY23F at 70k tons. </li><li>We trim our FY24F earnings forecast by 28% due to our lower LME price assumption of US$17k/t (prev. US$19k/t).</li><li>Maintain Buy but with a lower DCF-based TP of Rp6,500 due to our lower FY24F earnings forecast given lower ASP assumptions.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect INCO’s FY24F production volume to be sustained similar as FY23F at 70k tons. We trim our FY24F earnings forecast by 28% due to our lower LME price assumption of US$17k/t (prev. US$19k/t).Maintain Buy but with a lower DCF-based TP of Rp6,500 due to our lower FY24F earnings forecast given lower ASP assumptions.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Vale Indonesia (INCO.IJ) - Weak Nickel Price to Hit FY24 Margin

<ul><li>While INCO’s 3Q23 net profit fell to USD52.6 mn (-25.3% qoq/ +193% yoy), its 9M23 net profit of USD221mn (+31.3% yoy) is broadly in-line with ours and above consensus forecast (at 77.1%/ 82.3% of 2023F).</li><li>We maintain our 2023-24F earnings forecasts, which are already based on conservative nickel price outlook, and retain Buy rating with an unchanged DCF-based TP of IDR7,000</li><li>9M23 earnings were broadly in-line with our 2023F but above consensus. INCO’s 3Q23 net profit fell to USD52.6mn (-25.3% qoq/ 193% yoy), reflecting the drop in nickel prices, with ASP falling to USD16,204/ton (-9.8% qoq/ -9.2% yoy).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

While INCO’s 3Q23 net profit fell to USD52.6 mn (-25.3% qoq/ +193% yoy), its 9M23 net profit of USD221mn (+31.3% yoy) is broadly in-line with ours and above consensus forecast (at 77.1%/ 82.3% of 2023F).We maintain our 2023-24F earnings forecasts, which are already based on conservative nickel price outlook, and retain Buy rating with an unchanged DCF-based TP of IDR7,0009M23 earnings were broadly in-line with our 2023F but above consensus. INCO’s 3Q23 net profit fell to USD52.6mn (-25.3% qoq/ 193% yoy), reflecting the drop in nickel prices, with ASP falling to USD16,204/ton (-9.8% qoq/ -9.2% yoy).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ) - Lower 3Q23 Profit, but In-Line 9M23

Indonesia

PT Vale Indonesia Tbk produces nickel in matte, an intermediate product, from lateritic ores at its integrated mining and processing facilities near Soroako, Sulawesi

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Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO IJ)

Metal Mining: Better earnings prospect from possible price bottoming (OVERWEIGHT)

We believe the supply surplus may be buffered by demand from batteries and SS; our FY24-25F Ni price assumptions at US$18k/17.5k/t

BRI Danareksa Research

INCO IJ - MNC Sekuritas Equity Report February 20, 2024

INCO’s revenue throughout FY23 stood in-line with our estimates of USD1,209.7mn, coming in at USD1,232.3 (reflecting 101.9% of MNCS' estimate)

MNC Sekuritas

Nickel: Expect NPI Price to Decouple and Stabilize

While we expect LME nickel price to decline further in FY24F, we project NPI price will decouple and stabilize at US$14k/t.

BRI Danareksa Research

Vale Indonesia (INCO.IJ) - Weak Nickel Price to Hit FY24 Margin

We expect INCO’s FY24F production volume to be sustained similar as FY23F at 70k tons. We trim our FY24F earnings forecast by 28% due to our lower...

BRI Danareksa Research

Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ) - Lower 3Q23 Profit, but In-Line 9M23

While INCO’s 3Q23 net profit fell to USD52.6 mn (-25.3% qoq/ +193% yoy), its 9M23 net profit of USD221mn (+31.3% yoy) is broadly in-line with ours...

BRI Danareksa Research

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