Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Two New Yorkers who would be the future President of America debated in a world-stopping match at the home state today, and most would agree that Hillary won. Nevertheless, we get some credit to two Thai pundits who true to their contrarian nature said Trump is better for the Thai and Asian economies. We like Trump's take on tax cuts and high infrastructure spending, as this could be America needs for the short term. If elected, Hillary is more likely to get re-elected in 2020 than a now unlikely President Trump, so it's good that she has long term policies. With Trump's emphasis on local production of coal and oil, his defeat today bodes well for Banpu and PTTEP, as well as Thai exporters. Though Trump is not targetting Thai exports (we are too small), we agree with Dr. Chawala of CIMB that his attacks on China eventually trickle down to Thai exporters as well, since many Chinese companies buy from Thailand for re-export. With export revenues, Chinese would also have problems purchasing stuff from us.

Two New Yorkers who would be the future President of America debated in a world-stopping match at the home state today, and most would agree that Hillary won. Nevertheless, we get some credit to two Thai pundits who true to their contrarian nature said Trump is better for the Thai and Asian economies. We like Trump's take on tax cuts and high infrastructure spending, as this could be America needs for the short term. If elected, Hillary is more likely to get re-elected in 2020 than a now unlikely President Trump, so it's good that she has long term policies. With Trump's emphasis on local production of coal and oil, his defeat today bodes well for Banpu and PTTEP, as well as Thai exporters. Though Trump is not targetting Thai exports (we are too small), we agree with Dr. Chawala of CIMB that his attacks on China eventually trickle down to Thai exporters as well, since many Chinese companies buy from Thailand for re-export. With export revenues, Chinese would also have problems purchasing stuff from us.

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

I received a number of great responses following up on my 4 August personal take on building a long-term portfolio . Two detailed pieces coming from senior PMs at large funds which I think add value, and which I therefore reproduce below. The two commentaries are tremendous, and I am grateful for their in-depth contributions. … “CDT View” added briefly to clarify my view if needed.*** Response #1 ***Thanks for the piece…  A few responses:-- Know yourself.  Know your style, know your risk…

I received a number of great responses following up on my 4 August personal take on building a long-term portfolio . Two detailed pieces coming from senior PMs at large funds which I think add value, and which I therefore reproduce below. The two commentaries are tremendous, and I am grateful for their in-depth contributions. … “CDT View” added briefly to clarify my view if needed.*** Response #1 ***Thanks for the piece…  A few responses:-- Know yourself.  Know your style, know your risk…

PM Views & Responses on Portfolio Construction

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Vornado Realty Trust / Technical Analysis

Chartonics  Friday 2 September 2016To view click on this link: <a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/PLkxgq2WFM" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/PLkxgq2WFM</a> 5:15 min.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/012/644/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1472799884" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="12644"></figure><div class="content-caption">NFP trade webcast</div>NFP positioningWe used mild strength this week to reduce a margin of long exposure while focusing more on pair trades during increased volatility in September. We recently adjusted positioning as noted in Monday's report and sold our Thailand long (break of pivot support) for a gain of 8%, Thai bank long exited at flat. Took off our DJI long for a meager 100 point gain…

Chartonics  Friday 2 September 2016To view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/PLkxgq2WFM 5:15 min.NFP trade webcastNFP positioningWe used mild strength this week to reduce a margin of long exposure while focusing more on pair trades during increased volatility in September. We recently adjusted positioning as noted in Monday's report and sold our Thailand long (break of pivot support) for a gain of 8%, Thai bank long exited at flat. Took off our DJI long for a meager 100 point gain…

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Half-year 2016 trade volumes confirm generally muted container market. Where’s the growth?Most of the major carriers had poor first-half financial results. One of the main reasons behind the slump is the stagnation in demand for carriers’ services. Now that volume statistics are available for major 14 trades covered regularly by Drewry, representing an estimated 40% of the world total, we can see the picture more clearly. The two-way bi-lateral container traffic for the sample routes grew by…

Half-year 2016 trade volumes confirm generally muted container market. Where’s the growth?Most of the major carriers had poor first-half financial results. One of the main reasons behind the slump is the stagnation in demand for carriers’ services. Now that volume statistics are available for major 14 trades covered regularly by Drewry, representing an estimated 40% of the world total, we can see the picture more clearly. The two-way bi-lateral container traffic for the sample routes grew by…

Container Shipping - 1H16 Trade Volumes Confirm Generally Muted Market. Where's the Growth?

It is no easy task generating decent relatively low-risk long-term returns portfolio. Over the last decade I have put a lot of thinking into building such a portfolio. It did involve risk taking and periods of relative volatility. I have found several golden rules, also based on failures of up close experiences from myself and others. My hands down worse investment was not cutting losses in certain names into the 2008 crash – most notably Citigroup shares, some of which I was forcibly locked into owing to management options with false information from HR. GE was another counter I took a beating on in 2008+.But some 2009-09 investment lessons I found mirrored some of my 1987-88 market crash lessons. Over time I have reduced volatility in my portfolio.  My main lesson for my conservative investment style was that buying into the heart of a crash takes quite a bit of time and patience to claw back to break even on average picks.  But in the end I stuck to this value style for increasing positions a number of times over the years. What follows is a no-holds barred account of my rules based investments, and losses and gains which have led to decent long-term performance despite a few scary gaps.The second half of this piece is a dialogue with a global investor friend of 15-20 years.

It is no easy task generating decent relatively low-risk long-term returns portfolio. Over the last decade I have put a lot of thinking into building such a portfolio. It did involve risk taking and periods of relative volatility. I have found several golden rules, also based on failures of up close experiences from myself and others. My hands down worse investment was not cutting losses in certain names into the 2008 crash – most notably Citigroup shares, some of which I was forcibly locked into owing to management options with false information from HR. GE was another counter I took a beating on in 2008+.But some 2009-09 investment lessons I found mirrored some of my 1987-88 market crash lessons. Over time I have reduced volatility in my portfolio.  My main lesson for my conservative investment style was that buying into the heart of a crash takes quite a bit of time and patience to claw back to break even on average picks.  But in the end I stuck to this value style for increasing positions a number of times over the years. What follows is a no-holds barred account of my rules based investments, and losses and gains which have led to decent long-term performance despite a few scary gaps.The second half of this piece is a dialogue with a global investor friend of 15-20 years.

Building a Rules Based Perpetual Portfolio(Incl Global Investor Q & A)

United States

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the FTSE Emerging Markets Index. The ETF holds large and mid-cap stocks in emerging markets around the world. Brazil, Russia, India, Taiwan, China, and South Africa are among the markets included. The ETF weights these holdings based on market capitalization.

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO US)

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO US)

Hometown New York: Hillary 1, Trump 0

Two New Yorkers who would be the future President of America debated in a world-stopping match at the home state today, and most would agree that...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

PM Views & Responses on Portfolio Construction

I received a number of great responses following up on my 4 August personal take on building a long-term portfolio . Two detailed pieces coming...

Charles De Trenck

NFP Positioning and Trade Points

Chartonics Friday 2 September 2016To view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/PLkxgq2WFM 5:15 min.NFP positioningWe used mild strength...

Thomas Schroeder

Container Shipping - 1H16 Trade Volumes Confirm Generally Muted Market. Where's the Growth?

Half-year 2016 trade volumes confirm generally muted container market. Where’s the growth?Most of the major carriers had poor first-half financial...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Building a Rules Based Perpetual Portfolio(Incl Global Investor Q & A)

It is no easy task generating decent relatively low-risk long-term returns portfolio. Over the last decade I have put a lot of thinking into...

Charles De Trenck