ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast (VFS US)</a> released 1Q2023 results, with its revenues increasing three-fold YoY but falling QoQ due to the seasonal impact of Lunar New Year on both EVs and EV motorbikes.</li>
<li>The company saw a significant pick up in its sales to the US and continued to increase its dealer network which should drive future sales along with new models.</li>
<li>More than half of Vinfast sales were to related parties, which is an overhang in terms of the sustainability of its business models, whilst valuations remain above peers.</li>
</ul>



Vinfast (VFS US) released 1Q2023 results, with its revenues increasing three-fold YoY but falling QoQ due to the seasonal impact of Lunar New Year on both EVs and EV motorbikes.
The company saw a significant pick up in its sales to the US and continued to increase its dealer network which should drive future sales along with new models.
More than half of Vinfast sales were to related parties, which is an overhang in terms of the sustainability of its business models, whilst valuations remain above peers.


Vinfast (VFS US) - Some Respite from the US

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast (VFS US)</a> is large on promise but low on delivery, with sales in FY2023 coming in well below expectations, and the vast majority being to related companies. </li>
<li>The company is building huge capacity in Vietnam, India, and Indonesia in the region, and in the US, where sales have been slow but where capex is required.</li>
<li>Vingroup has set up ride-hailing company GSM, using Vinfast vehicles for its fleet, making up 50% of its sales in 2023, leaving question marks over the sustainability of its model.</li>
</ul>



Vinfast (VFS US) is large on promise but low on delivery, with sales in FY2023 coming in well below expectations, and the vast majority being to related companies. 
The company is building huge capacity in Vietnam, India, and Indonesia in the region, and in the US, where sales have been slow but where capex is required.
Vingroup has set up ride-hailing company GSM, using Vinfast vehicles for its fleet, making up 50% of its sales in 2023, leaving question marks over the sustainability of its model.


Vinfast (VFS US) - An EV Accident Waiting to Happen?

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club

External reports (aggregated public sources)

<ul><li>VinFast is a fast-growing electric vehicle manufacturer based in Vietnam, founded in 2017 by Vingroup and billionaire Pham Nhat Vuong</li><li>The company has plans for global expansion and aims to have vehicles in 50 markets by the end of 2024</li><li>VinFast has a $16 billion market cap and recently completed a SPAC merger that raised $239 million, but its financial ties to Vingroup raise concerns about its independence</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

VinFast is a fast-growing electric vehicle manufacturer based in Vietnam, founded in 2017 by Vingroup and billionaire Pham Nhat VuongThe company has plans for global expansion and aims to have vehicles in 50 markets by the end of 2024VinFast has a $16 billion market cap and recently completed a SPAC merger that raised $239 million, but its financial ties to Vingroup raise concerns about its independenceThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Vinfast Auto Ltd (VFS) - Tuesday, Dec 5, 2023

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast (VFS US)</a>, a Vietnamese EV manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a>, completed its merger with Black Spade on 14 August. </li>
<li>Due to the low float, the shares have been on a wild ride, with the last close of US$6.56 materially below the high of US$82.35 per share.</li>
<li>VinFast remains an avoid due to related party-driven EV sales, declining customer traction, operating losses, cash burn, equity raise overhang and frothy valuation.  </li>
</ul>



Vinfast (VFS US), a Vietnamese EV manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), completed its merger with Black Spade on 14 August. 
Due to the low float, the shares have been on a wild ride, with the last close of US$6.56 materially below the high of US$82.35 per share.
VinFast remains an avoid due to related party-driven EV sales, declining customer traction, operating losses, cash burn, equity raise overhang and frothy valuation.  


2024 High Conviction: VinFast (VFS US) – Heading for Trouble

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After de-SPACing last August, shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">VinFast (VFS US)</a>, the EV arm of Vietnamese conglomerate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a>, went orbital, as discussed in <a href="https://skr.ma/MYHnq" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Vingroup: VinFast's Valuation Makes No Sense</a>
</li>
<li>VinFast cratered shortly thereafter. But still trades at a hefty ~25x P/S, well above industry peers.</li>
<li>Last Friday VinFast announced it was replacing both its CEO and CFO. Not a great look five months after IPOing. Even less attractive is the incoming CEO is VinGroup's founder.</li>
</ul>


After de-SPACing last August, shares in VinFast (VFS US), the EV arm of Vietnamese conglomerate Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), went orbital, as discussed in Vingroup: VinFast's Valuation Makes No Sense

VinFast cratered shortly thereafter. But still trades at a hefty ~25x P/S, well above industry peers.
Last Friday VinFast announced it was replacing both its CEO and CFO. Not a great look five months after IPOing. Even less attractive is the incoming CEO is VinGroup's founder.


VinFast's Global Expansion As Shares Stall

Vietnam

Vinfast Auto Ltd. operates electric vehicle intelligent platform. The Company offers full-scale mobility platform focused primarily on designing and manufacturing premium EVs, electric scooter, and electric buses. Vinfast Auto serves customers worldwide.

Vinfast (VFS US)

Vinfast (VFS US) - Some Respite from the US

More than half of Vinfast sales were to related parties, which is an overhang in terms of the sustainability of its business models, whilst...

Angus Mackintosh

Vinfast (VFS US) - An EV Accident Waiting to Happen?

Vinfast is big on promise but low on delivery, with sales in FY2023 below expectations, and the majority being to related companies. There are...

Angus Mackintosh

Vinfast Auto Ltd (VFS) - Tuesday, Dec 5, 2023

VinFast has a $16 billion market cap and recently completed a SPAC merger that raised $239 million, but its financial ties to Vingroup raise...

Value Investors Club

2024 High Conviction: VinFast (VFS US) – Heading for Trouble

VinFast remains an avoid due to related party-driven EV sales, declining customer traction, operating losses, cash burn, equity raise overhang and...

Arun George

VinFast's Global Expansion As Shares Stall

IF Vingroup were to offload some of its stake in VinFast to increase the float, that could be a catalyst. I'd still be disinclined to invest in...

David Blennerhassett