Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious</li>
<li>While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).


Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Singtel (Singapore Telecommunications) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have been expecting near-term downside on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 since our February 27 Int’l Compass, when both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts.</li>
<li>Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we don't see it as a buying opportunity, and we believe $115 support is not likely to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are cautious and would get defensive, as we believe the odds of a more prolonged downturn in global equities are rising.</li>
</ul>


We have been expecting near-term downside on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 since our February 27 Int’l Compass, when both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts.
Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we don't see it as a buying opportunity, and we believe $115 support is not likely to hold on ACWI-US.
Therefore, we are cautious and would get defensive, as we believe the odds of a more prolonged downturn in global equities are rising.


Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). Germany and Europe continue to lead, our favorite theme we have been buying since January 9th.</li>
<li>Near-Term we wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on SPX in the coming weeks, where we are buyers.</li>
<li>This report was initially sent out Thursday morning, and as of this writing SPX is now testing support at 5850. Bottom potential.</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). Germany and Europe continue to lead, our favorite theme we have been buying since January 9th.
Near-Term we wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on SPX in the coming weeks, where we are buyers.
This report was initially sent out Thursday morning, and as of this writing SPX is now testing support at 5850. Bottom potential.


Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.</li>
<li>We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
<li>Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.</li>
</ul>


Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.
We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.
Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.


Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

<ul>
<li>Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.</li>
<li>It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).</li>
</ul>


Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).
Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.
It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).


Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

South Africa

Vodacom Group Limited operates a cellular telephone network in South Africa. The Company has mobile operations in Tanzania, Mozambique, Lesotho and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

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Vodacom Group (VOD SJ)

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn are Rising; We are Cautious; Get Defensive; $115 on ACWI-US Remains Key Level, and is at Risk of Breakdown. Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany and U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact

Germany and Europe Continue to Lead; Remain Overweight Germany $DAX $EWG and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI above $116. $SPX...

Vermilion Research

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead $ACWI $SPX; Stick With Defensive Sectors; Downgrading Taiwan $EWT $TSM to Market Weight; Global Discretionary vs. Staples...

Vermilion Research

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

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