EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In my last piece I discussed why I thought an actual Brexit was unlikely despite the result of the referendum last week. This piece answers some questions on some of the detail of the likely path ahead and some of the interesting elements around this.

In my last piece I discussed why I thought an actual Brexit was unlikely despite the result of the referendum last week. This piece answers some questions on some of the detail of the likely path ahead and some of the interesting elements around this.

Differentiated global TMT & Internet Research

New Street Research Insights

New Street Research

Research is provided by our team of experienced analysts. Our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focused on fundamentals and valuation of telecoms and internet names globally. New Street is headquartered in London with offices in New York, Singapore and Australia. 

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
US Healthcare
Japanese Healthcare

We also provide debt research on:
Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

Equity Bottom-Up

When we wrote about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8922" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8922">Bharti Infratel</a> (BHIN) in February there was considerable push back on the idea that margins would be squeezed. We believe the market has been overly optimistic on BHIN. Bulls expect BHIN's rental revenues to growth faster than land rental costs and other costs leading to margin improvements. We believe that land rental costs are going to rise quickly and this will pressure future returns. In recent days, there has been a spate of analyst downgrades. We remain negative on the…

When we wrote about Bharti Infratel (BHIN) in February there was considerable push back on the idea that margins would be squeezed. We believe the market has been overly optimistic on BHIN. Bulls expect BHIN's rental revenues to growth faster than land rental costs and other costs leading to margin improvements. We believe that land rental costs are going to rise quickly and this will pressure future returns. In recent days, there has been a spate of analyst downgrades. We remain negative on the…

The last few days have seen a maelstrom of opinions and recrimination after the shock referendum decision to leave the EU.The lack of a concrete plan of action for an exit has shocked markets, leaving even those who avoid politics worried about the future.However, looking at the structure of western democracy a departure from the EU is very unlikely.

The last few days have seen a maelstrom of opinions and recrimination after the shock referendum decision to leave the EU.The lack of a concrete plan of action for an exit has shocked markets, leaving even those who avoid politics worried about the future.However, looking at the structure of western democracy a departure from the EU is very unlikely.

As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/273" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:273">Morningstar</a> has noted, Brexit fears may be positive for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/690" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:690">Telstra</a> in Australia. The unexpected Brexit vote has sent shockwaves through financial markets and it will take some time to settle down. There are many moving parts in Europe with a real potential for a rising cost of capital, FX disconnections, and possible macroeconomic fallout.Much is in the realm of the unknown, making near-term predictions difficult. However, once the dust settles, we do view telecoms as an industry that is less…

As Morningstar has noted, Brexit fears may be positive for Telstra in Australia. The unexpected Brexit vote has sent shockwaves through financial markets and it will take some time to settle down. There are many moving parts in Europe with a real potential for a rising cost of capital, FX disconnections, and possible macroeconomic fallout.Much is in the realm of the unknown, making near-term predictions difficult. However, once the dust settles, we do view telecoms as an industry that is less…

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Last week in my notes I pointed to the investment world being upside down and there being too much risk to be fully invested.Let’s set aside whether Banks, UK Banks or even UBS have gotten oversold and are trading buys post Brexit Vote. For my end, I am not going to trade more than 1-2% of holdings in banks. Just enough to get a feel. Not enough to do any damage. There may be some opportunities. There may be opportunities as well in names competing with WMT and in Telecoms…UK tracking device:…

Last week in my notes I pointed to the investment world being upside down and there being too much risk to be fully invested.Let’s set aside whether Banks, UK Banks or even UBS have gotten oversold and are trading buys post Brexit Vote. For my end, I am not going to trade more than 1-2% of holdings in banks. Just enough to get a feel. Not enough to do any damage. There may be some opportunities. There may be opportunities as well in names competing with WMT and in Telecoms…UK tracking device:…

The Dark Side of Glocalization (Even if Investment Opportunities)

United States

Vodafone Group Plc provides a range of mobile telecommunications services, including voice and data communications.  Vodafone has equity interests in 28 countries and Partner Networks in a further 7 countries with almost all the Group's mobile subsidiaries operating principally under the brand name Vodafone. In the United States their associated undertaking operates as Verizon Wireless.

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Vodafone Group Plc Sp Adr (VOD US)

The Path to No Brexit

In my last piece I discussed why I thought an actual Brexit was unlikely despite the result of the referendum last week. This piece answers some...

Emad Mostaque

Bharti Infratel: The Squeeze Is Here

When we wrote about Bharti Infratel (BHIN) in February there was considerable push back on the idea that margins would be squeezed. We believe the...

New Street Research

Why Brexit (Probably) Won't Happen

The last few days have seen a maelstrom of opinions and recrimination after the shock referendum decision to leave the EU.The lack of a concrete...

Emad Mostaque

Brexit Far More than a UK Issue

As Morningstar has noted, Brexit fears may be positive for Telstra in Australia. The unexpected Brexit vote has sent shockwaves through financial...

New Street Research

The Dark Side of Glocalization (Even if Investment Opportunities)

Last week in my notes I pointed to the investment world being upside down and there being too much risk to be fully invested.Let’s set aside...

Charles De Trenck

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