European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Net debt improved by around €1 billion to c. €5.8 billion. Prioritising deleveraging and allocations to new venture investments over dividends seem to have a negative impact on valuation.</li>
<li>Porsche SE is viewed as a holding company of Volkswagen Group, which should warrant a discount of 15%-25% on the stock, instead of the massive 44.6% discount to NAV.</li>
<li>Assuming a typical company holding discount of 15-25% range, the current share price indicates Porsche SE is liable for the whole c. €6.5 billion legal claims.</li>
</ul>


Net debt improved by around €1 billion to c. €5.8 billion. Prioritising deleveraging and allocations to new venture investments over dividends seem to have a negative impact on valuation.
Porsche SE is viewed as a holding company of Volkswagen Group, which should warrant a discount of 15%-25% on the stock, instead of the massive 44.6% discount to NAV.
Assuming a typical company holding discount of 15-25% range, the current share price indicates Porsche SE is liable for the whole c. €6.5 billion legal claims.


Preference for Deleveraging, Model Update

<ul>
<li>Since mid-February, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 9 widened, 1 remained at same level).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Danieli, Grifols, Media-for-Europe, Sixt.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-February, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 9 widened, 1 remained at same level).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Danieli, Grifols, Media-for-Europe, Sixt.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March‘24 Report

<ul>
<li>The Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during February. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.1% (vs. 47.5%); GBL, 37.7% vs. (37.1%); Heineken Holding, 16.5% (vs. 16.6%); </li>
<li>Industrivärden C, 4.4% (vs. 3.8%); Investor B, 5.6% (vs. 7.9%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 43.7% (vs. 42%). The spread of Rio DLC widened to 25.6% (vs. 25.2%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting: Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


The Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have mainly widened during February. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.1% (vs. 47.5%); GBL, 37.7% vs. (37.1%); Heineken Holding, 16.5% (vs. 16.6%); 
Industrivärden C, 4.4% (vs. 3.8%); Investor B, 5.6% (vs. 7.9%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 43.7% (vs. 42%). The spread of Rio DLC widened to 25.6% (vs. 25.2%).
What seems interesting: Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: February’24 Report

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.
We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.


Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

<ul>
<li>Since mid-January, spreads have tightened, same as in December, across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have tightened, 6 widened).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Danieli, Grifols, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-January, spreads have tightened, same as in December, across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have tightened, 6 widened).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Danieli, Grifols, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February‘24 Report

Germany

Volkswagen AG manufactures and sells vehicles. The Company offers economy and luxury automobiles, sports cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. Volkswagen serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Volkswagen (Pref) (VOW3 GR)

Preference for Deleveraging, Model Update

Porsche SE's focus on reducing debt and investing in new ventures impacts valuation, leading to a significant discount on stock price compared to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March‘24 Report

Since mid-February, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: February’24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened in February. What seems interesting: Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Bullish Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over, 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX Rolling Over; More Global Indexes Breaking Out (Israel, Germany, Sweden). Buys...

Vermilion Research

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February‘24 Report

Since mid-January, spreads have tightened, same as in December, across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Preference for Deleveraging, Model Update

​Porsche SE's focus on reducing debt and investing in new ventures impacts valuation, leading to a significant discount on stock price compared to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March‘24 Report

Since mid-February, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: February’24 Report

​Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened in February. What seems interesting: Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Bullish Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over, 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX Rolling Over; More Global Indexes Breaking Out (Israel, Germany, Sweden). Buys...

Vermilion Research

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February‘24 Report

Since mid-January, spreads have tightened, same as in December, across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Porsche SE's focus on reducing debt and investing in new ventures impacts valuation, leading to a significant discount on stock price compared to...

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened in February. What seems interesting: Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN...