Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Global Healthcare ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As recently as last week and throughout February/March we have recommended shifting to defensives due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on the $ACWI in 2023.</li>
<li>MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX-US).</li>
<li>This confirms our belief that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives. We highlight buys in Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities, with the vast majority from Europe</li>
</ul>


As recently as last week and throughout February/March we have recommended shifting to defensives due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on the $ACWI in 2023.
MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX-US).
This confirms our belief that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives. We highlight buys in Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities, with the vast majority from Europe


Defensives Worthy of a Tactical Overweight; Buys in Global Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>On March 2 we discussed how the pullback in global equities was in full swing as Europe/UK indexes displayed 4.5-month uptrend breaks, joining the pullback in the MSCI ACWI.</li>
<li>At the time, we expected this pullback in the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) to move down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low) or $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>ACWI-US broke below $86 and is approaching $84. $84 will be an important support level to monitor, but if it breaks, the $75-77 level is still firmly in the cards.</li>
</ul>


On March 2 we discussed how the pullback in global equities was in full swing as Europe/UK indexes displayed 4.5-month uptrend breaks, joining the pullback in the MSCI ACWI.
At the time, we expected this pullback in the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) to move down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low) or $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
ACWI-US broke below $86 and is approaching $84. $84 will be an important support level to monitor, but if it breaks, the $75-77 level is still firmly in the cards.


Global Pullback Continues; Focus on Defensives: Buys in Staples, Utilities, Precious Metals Miners

<ul>
<li>Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain bearish, as do indexes in Japan, Hong Kong, China, Europe, and Germany.</li>
<li>Until we see these indexes break above downtrends and key resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.</li>
<li>Remain overweight Energy and Materials with the secular commodity bull market intact. Defensive Sectors are also hitting 1-2-year RS highs; we recommend overweights to Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.</li>
</ul>


Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain bearish, as do indexes in Japan, Hong Kong, China, Europe, and Germany.
Until we see these indexes break above downtrends and key resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.
Remain overweight Energy and Materials with the secular commodity bull market intact. Defensive Sectors are also hitting 1-2-year RS highs; we recommend overweights to Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.


Opportunities Within Energy and Materials

<ul>
<li>Gold has been consolidating its gains following the major breakout above 1850, and is now bullishly inflecting above 1970 short-term resistance.</li>
<li>We believe this sets the stage for a test of the 2089 all-time highs, and we expect a breakout which would complete a 10-year cup-and-handle pattern.</li>
<li>Gold and silver miners (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) are also breaking out -- overweight/add exposure. Now is an opportune time to get in on these fresh breakouts.</li>
</ul>


Gold has been consolidating its gains following the major breakout above 1850, and is now bullishly inflecting above 1970 short-term resistance.
We believe this sets the stage for a test of the 2089 all-time highs, and we expect a breakout which would complete a 10-year cup-and-handle pattern.
Gold and silver miners (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) are also breaking out -- overweight/add exposure. Now is an opportune time to get in on these fresh breakouts.


Miners Breaking Out, Buy Gold & Silver Miners NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, AUY, SSRM, BTG, WPM, PAAS, Others

<ul>
<li>Global equity indexes have staged impressive rallies from oversold levels, and certain hard-hit areas in Europe (STOXX600 Technology, Industrial Goods &amp; Services, and Chemicals Sectors) display bullish short-term price reversals.</li>
<li>We view this as a <em>potential</em> signal that the lows may have been established for this correction, but we need to see more upside follow-through.</li>
<li>Regardless, we want to stick with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically attractive throughout this pullback, <em>not</em> on areas that are just now spiking from oversold levels within downtrends.</li>
</ul>


Global equity indexes have staged impressive rallies from oversold levels, and certain hard-hit areas in Europe (STOXX600 Technology, Industrial Goods &amp; Services, and Chemicals Sectors) display bullish short-term price reversals.
We view this as a potential signal that the lows may have been established for this correction, but we need to see more upside follow-through.
Regardless, we want to stick with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically attractive throughout this pullback, not on areas that are just now spiking from oversold levels within downtrends.


Value Remains Leadership; Actionable Ideas: Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials

Brazil

Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. operates as a precious metals streaming company. The Company focuses on gold and silver projects. Wheaton Precious Metals serves customers worldwide.

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Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM CN)

Defensives Worthy of a Tactical Overweight; Buys in Global Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities

We have recommended shifting to defensives throughout Feb/March due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on $ACWI. We highlight buys within...

Vermilion Research

Global Pullback Continues; Focus on Defensives: Buys in Staples, Utilities, Precious Metals Miners

Europe/UK STOXX Europe 50/FTSE 100 with concerning breakdowns below 3800 and 7700, joining the pullback that had already started in the MSCI ACWI....

Vermilion Research

Opportunities Within Energy and Materials

Global indexes remain below our key lines in the sand of $54 on $ACWX, $75.25 on $EFA, and the 200-day MA on $ACWI. As long as prices are below...

Vermilion Research

Miners Breaking Out, Buy Gold & Silver Miners NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, AUY, SSRM, BTG, WPM, PAAS, Others

#Gold has been consolidating its gains following the major breakout above 1850, and is now bullishly inflecting above 1970 short-term resistance....

Vermilion Research

Value Remains Leadership; Actionable Ideas: Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials

We are sticking with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically sound throughout this correction, not on areas that are just now spiking...

Vermilion Research

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