Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly inflows into China Mobile, CNOOC, Tencent, Li Ning, Wuxi Biologics.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight weekly inflows into China Mobile, CNOOC, Tencent, Li Ning, Wuxi Biologics.


Hong Kong Connect Flows: China Mobile, CNOOC, Tencent, Li Ning, Wuxi Biologics

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As one of the few CXOs in the industry that has layout of the whole industry chain, Pharmaron carries many expectations. But it cannot compete with WuXi AppTec so far.</li>
<li>If Pharmaron could make breakthrough either in its CMC services (improving gross profit margin and scale) or the CGT services, the Company’s outlook and valuation logic would improve greatly.</li>
<li>The valuation of Pharmaron should be lower than WuXi AppTec and WuXi Biologics, but higher than Asymchem, Tigermed and Joinn. Considering the macro uncertainties, short-term trades are advised.</li>
</ul>


As one of the few CXOs in the industry that has layout of the whole industry chain, Pharmaron carries many expectations. But it cannot compete with WuXi AppTec so far.
If Pharmaron could make breakthrough either in its CMC services (improving gross profit margin and scale) or the CGT services, the Company’s outlook and valuation logic would improve greatly.
The valuation of Pharmaron should be lower than WuXi AppTec and WuXi Biologics, but higher than Asymchem, Tigermed and Joinn. Considering the macro uncertainties, short-term trades are advised.


Pharmaron Beijing Co Ltd (3759.HK/300759.CH) 2022/2021Q1 Results- Expectations Coexist with Concerns

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Allocations in Biotechnology stocks have taken a severe drop among active China A-Share investors.  </li>
<li>From a high of 4% in July of 2020, average fund weights have fallen to just 1.14% and average underweights have plunged towards their lowest level on record.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a> has led the declines, as sentiment towards the China A-Share Biotechnology sector looks fragile.</li>
</ul>


Allocations in Biotechnology stocks have taken a severe drop among active China A-Share investors.  
From a high of 4% in July of 2020, average fund weights have fallen to just 1.14% and average underweights have plunged towards their lowest level on record.

Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) has led the declines, as sentiment towards the China A-Share Biotechnology sector looks fragile.


<ul>
<li>Recently, the Senate blesses bill to boost American competitiveness, restore the country’s manufacturing base and curb its reliance on China for critical supplies, especially in “medical and pharmaceutical fields”.</li>
<li>The global API industry pattern and status of China's APIs in global market are difficult to change.The US would find it difficult to enforce sanctions because of supply chain problems.</li>
<li>However, the worst-case scenario is if there's an extreme or black swan event (e.g. Taiwan Strait war), there is a risk of decoupling, which should be aware of by investors.</li>
</ul>


Recently, the Senate blesses bill to boost American competitiveness, restore the country’s manufacturing base and curb its reliance on China for critical supplies, especially in “medical and pharmaceutical fields”.
The global API industry pattern and status of China's APIs in global market are difficult to change.The US would find it difficult to enforce sanctions because of supply chain problems.
However, the worst-case scenario is if there's an extreme or black swan event (e.g. Taiwan Strait war), there is a risk of decoupling, which should be aware of by investors.


The Impact of America COMPETES Act on China Healthcare – Supply Chain Decoupling?

Asymchem Laboratories Tianjin / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The three large orders for COVID-19 small molecule drugs are mostly one-off revenues, and after 2022, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asymchem-laboratories" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35691:1" rel="noopener">Asymchem Laboratories (6821 HK)</a>'s performance could decline from a high base.</li>
<li>In essence, Asymchem mainly relies on cost advantage of large-scale capacity to obtain orders.Without core leading technology in frontier of medicine, Asymchem is difficult to enjoy sustainable industry development dividend.</li>
<li>Overall, Asymchem’s moat is not strong enough, and the certainty of the Company's long-term performance growth is also not high. It could be a short-term trade rather than long-term hold.</li>
</ul>


The three large orders for COVID-19 small molecule drugs are mostly one-off revenues, and after 2022, Asymchem Laboratories (6821 HK)'s performance could decline from a high base.
In essence, Asymchem mainly relies on cost advantage of large-scale capacity to obtain orders.Without core leading technology in frontier of medicine, Asymchem is difficult to enjoy sustainable industry development dividend.
Overall, Asymchem’s moat is not strong enough, and the certainty of the Company's long-term performance growth is also not high. It could be a short-term trade rather than long-term hold.


Asymchem Laboratories (6821.HK/002821.CH) - Concerns on Future Growth Momentum

China

WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc. is a leading open-access R&D capability and technology platform company serving the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries, with operations in China, U.S., and Iceland.  We provide a broad and integrated portfolio of laboratory and manufacturing services throughout the drug and medical device R&D process.  Our services are designed to help our global partners in shortening the cycle and lowering the cost of drug and medical device R&D through cost-effective and efficient solutions. 

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Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)

Hong Kong Connect Flows: China Mobile, CNOOC, Tencent, Li Ning, Wuxi Biologics

We highlight weekly southbound Hong Kong Connect inflows into China Mobile, CNOOC, Tencent, Li Ning, Wuxi Biologics from mainland investors.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pharmaron Beijing Co Ltd (3759.HK/300759.CH) 2022/2021Q1 Results- Expectations Coexist with Concerns

We analyzed Pharmaron's performance in 2021 & 2022Q1.Expectations coexist with concerns. Its outlook/valuation logic would improve greatly if it...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China A-Shares: Biotechnology Exit

Allocations in Biotechnology stocks have taken a severe drop among active China A-Share investors. From a high of 4% in July of 2020, average fund...

Steven Holden

The Impact of America COMPETES Act on China Healthcare – Supply Chain Decoupling?

The impact of America COMPETES Act could be limited in ST due to China's strong position in global supply chain.But if there's extreme case...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Asymchem Laboratories (6821.HK/002821.CH) - Concerns on Future Growth Momentum

Despite COVID-19 drug orders, Asymchem's performance could decline afterwards. In essence, it mainly relies on cost advantage of large-scale...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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