Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The major development in May was the almost complete breakdown in China-US trade negotiations. The talks ceased on May 11th with no agreement, soon after US President Donald Trump raised tariffs on USD 200 bn of Chinese goods to 25% from 10%. Possible retaliatory moves by China, in addition to its recent tariff increase on USD 60 bn worth of US goods, include restricting rare earth exports to the US. Such a move could hurt many US manufacturers, given that China holds c. 71% of the global market share. Recently, US Vice-President Mike Pence warned China that the US “could more than double tariffs if needed”.

The major development in May was the almost complete breakdown in China-US trade negotiations. The talks ceased on May 11th with no agreement, soon after US President Donald Trump raised tariffs on USD 200 bn of Chinese goods to 25% from 10%. Possible retaliatory moves by China, in addition to its recent tariff increase on USD 60 bn worth of US goods, include restricting rare earth exports to the US. Such a move could hurt many US manufacturers, given that China holds c. 71% of the global market share. Recently, US Vice-President Mike Pence warned China that the US “could more than double tariffs if needed”.

Asia HY Monthly – LARA and Credit Bias Study (May 2019)

Toward the end of November, bond market traders seemed to reassess the Fed’s pace of rate tightening, with signs emerging of a sputtering in global economic growth. Last month, the IMF downgraded its forecast for world growth, and recently warned that the outlook may have deteriorated.Minutes from the last FOMC meeting indicated that Fed officials discussed the modification of language on "further gradual" hikes, as well as the need for a flexible approach on rates. This approach seems realistic, given the falling oil prices and indications of a cooling in the medium-term prospects for US inflation (the core PCE deflator for October missed expectations at 1.8%).

Toward the end of November, bond market traders seemed to reassess the Fed’s pace of rate tightening, with signs emerging of a sputtering in global economic growth. Last month, the IMF downgraded its forecast for world growth, and recently warned that the outlook may have deteriorated.Minutes from the last FOMC meeting indicated that Fed officials discussed the modification of language on "further gradual" hikes, as well as the need for a flexible approach on rates. This approach seems realistic, given the falling oil prices and indications of a cooling in the medium-term prospects for US inflation (the core PCE deflator for October missed expectations at 1.8%).

Lucror Asia HY Monthly – Chinese Macro Overview (November 2018)

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

After a couple of years of declining prices and low volumes relative to other cities, the market for residential new home sales in Sanya and on Hainan island may be starting to shine again, especially with a significant volume growth pickup, while many other cities are entering a down-cycle.

After a couple of years of declining prices and low volumes relative to other cities, the market for residential new home sales in Sanya and on Hainan island may be starting to shine again, especially with a significant volume growth pickup, while many other cities are entering a down-cycle.

China Property: A Turning Point For The Sunny Sanya And Hainan Island?

Which major Chinese cities are likely to outperform in 2017 on price growth/pickup in residential new home sales markets? In 2016 (Jan-Nov), we saw lower-tier spill-over cities near Tier-1 cities as top performers, followed by Hefei, Xiamen, Nanjing and Shenzhen, on a 12-month price growth basis. Which cities are worth watching in 2017?

Which major Chinese cities are likely to outperform in 2017 on price growth/pickup in residential new home sales markets? In 2016 (Jan-Nov), we saw lower-tier spill-over cities near Tier-1 cities as top performers, followed by Hefei, Xiamen, Nanjing and Shenzhen, on a 12-month price growth basis. Which cities are worth watching in 2017?

Chongqing comes up as the next 'lead city' in volume growth and price pickup in the 'commercial residential' new home sales market in China. The average performance of the city on a 12-month basis contrasts with a standout growth in volumes and pickup in prices in recent months (November data); the impact of latest January tightening measures is still to be seen, but the city has a good chance of becoming a relative outperformer in 2017.

Chongqing comes up as the next 'lead city' in volume growth and price pickup in the 'commercial residential' new home sales market in China. The average performance of the city on a 12-month basis contrasts with a standout growth in volumes and pickup in prices in recent months (November data); the impact of latest January tightening measures is still to be seen, but the city has a good chance of becoming a relative outperformer in 2017.

China

Wuzhou International Holdings Ltd is a property developer in both the Yangtze River Delta Area and Jiangsu Province. The Company engages in the development and operation of multi-functional commercial complexes.

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Wuzhou International (1369 HK)

Asia HY Monthly – LARA and Credit Bias Study (May 2019)

The major development in May was the almost complete breakdown in China-US trade negotiations. The talks ceased on May 11th with no agreement, soon...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Asia HY Monthly – Chinese Macro Overview (November 2018)

Toward the end of November, bond market traders seemed to reassess the Fed’s pace of rate tightening, with signs emerging of a sputtering in global...

Lucror Analytics

China Property: A Turning Point For The Sunny Sanya And Hainan Island?

After a couple of years of declining prices and low volumes relative to other cities, the market for residential new home sales in Sanya and on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: 2017 City Picks

Which major Chinese cities are likely to outperform in 2017 on price growth/pickup in residential new home sales markets? In 2016 (Jan-Nov), we saw...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: The Case of Chongqing

Chongqing comes up as the next 'lead city' in volume growth and price pickup in the 'commercial residential' new home sales market in China. The...

Robert Ciemniak

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