Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Executive Summary: Momentum behind the recent Treasury market rally may be starting to slow. Greater conviction is likely to build over the weeks which follow as economic data is published, rather than result from this week’s FOMC meeting.It is unlikely that the Fed will signal that it is ready to start tapering its asset purchase program this week. We are yet to see the whites of wage-growth eyes. Meanwhile, Canada became the first major economy to signal an exit from asset purchases. Canada’s central bank also indicated that a rate rise is now expected in the second half of 2022. Global interest rates did not react.  However, we may be tricked into seeing things which not there as upcoming wage data may point to rapidly falling wages.As such, the narrative remains left to be taken in the fixed income markets.  We may have reached a peak in short positioning unwinding and the re-entry of Japanese investors in the market is also taken as a given. Unexpectedly good economic data over the next few weeks could be bad for Treasury yields.  This could re-ignite the reflation and carry-trade rallies.While Treasuries continue to tread water, spreads on US CCC rated notes continued to trade at levels not seen since prior to the Global Financial Crisis in 2007. Investors are becoming concerned that the stretch for yield may be overdone. Excess US spread compression could benefit Asia HY as investors move offshore to grab better yields and excess spreads.In the bank credit markets, Asia-headquartered institution performed across the credit continuum while European bank bond remained stuck with carry-trade unwind performance. The combination of spread tightening and Treasury bond curve flattening generated positive total returns amongst Asia banks.We will hit the peak in bank earnings reports in the upcoming week. US banks set a high bar for performance by generating stellar investment banking and progressively improving core banking results over the last two weeks. They then signaled that they anticipate significantly higher interest rates later this year by raising record breaking amounts in the debt capital markets. Other banks may follow with material debt issuance over the next few weeks after reporting earnings this week.  We explore these market themes within.Market Outlook: Already looking past upcoming spikes in inflation and job creation, the Treasury market is repricing for lower growth and lower rates over a longer time-period. This should be risk asset supportive as the US dollar finally weakens. The risk is that of impotent monetary policy and a constrained fiscal response in a shorter than expected business cycle.

Executive Summary: Momentum behind the recent Treasury market rally may be starting to slow. Greater conviction is likely to build over the weeks which follow as economic data is published, rather than result from this week’s FOMC meeting.It is unlikely that the Fed will signal that it is ready to start tapering its asset purchase program this week. We are yet to see the whites of wage-growth eyes. Meanwhile, Canada became the first major economy to signal an exit from asset purchases. Canada’s central bank also indicated that a rate rise is now expected in the second half of 2022. Global interest rates did not react.  However, we may be tricked into seeing things which not there as upcoming wage data may point to rapidly falling wages.As such, the narrative remains left to be taken in the fixed income markets.  We may have reached a peak in short positioning unwinding and the re-entry of Japanese investors in the market is also taken as a given. Unexpectedly good economic data over the next few weeks could be bad for Treasury yields.  This could re-ignite the reflation and carry-trade rallies.While Treasuries continue to tread water, spreads on US CCC rated notes continued to trade at levels not seen since prior to the Global Financial Crisis in 2007. Investors are becoming concerned that the stretch for yield may be overdone. Excess US spread compression could benefit Asia HY as investors move offshore to grab better yields and excess spreads.In the bank credit markets, Asia-headquartered institution performed across the credit continuum while European bank bond remained stuck with carry-trade unwind performance. The combination of spread tightening and Treasury bond curve flattening generated positive total returns amongst Asia banks.We will hit the peak in bank earnings reports in the upcoming week. US banks set a high bar for performance by generating stellar investment banking and progressively improving core banking results over the last two weeks. They then signaled that they anticipate significantly higher interest rates later this year by raising record breaking amounts in the debt capital markets. Other banks may follow with material debt issuance over the next few weeks after reporting earnings this week.  We explore these market themes within.Market Outlook: Already looking past upcoming spikes in inflation and job creation, the Treasury market is repricing for lower growth and lower rates over a longer time-period. This should be risk asset supportive as the US dollar finally weakens. The risk is that of impotent monetary policy and a constrained fiscal response in a shorter than expected business cycle.  

Bank Credit Weekly: Momentum Slows as Conviction Is Lacking

Executive Summary: The narrative has changed and there is little to stand in the way of further Treasury market strength near term. This should lead to US dollar weakness and may be Emerging Market risk asset supportive. Nonetheless, we suspect that Asia will remain driven by concerns that China is tightening which could constrain investor sentiment in this market.Trading volume-, Treasury issuance- and economic data-risks were no match for short-position unwinding, data reappraisal, and Japanese investor re-entry into the Treasury bond market over the last week. Treasury yields continued their retracement, posting their biggest weekly rally since August. Furthermore, after the worst quarter since 1980, Treasuries have gained around 1% this month, paring 2021 losses to about 3.3%. We may have seen a sell-the-rumor, buy-the-fact market event occur with respect to Treasuries and the better-than-expected March economic data set.The narrative has changed to one that is Treasury bond supportive. Fixed income markets are discounting lower economic growth and price expectations. Scenarios with a declining growth rate may be increasingly discounted in the Treasury markets. With GDP growth anticipated to tail-off over the next few quarters, sustainable wage growth may not materialize. Meanwhile, supply chain bottlenecks and rising producer prices may negatively impact corporate margins rather than consumer wallets. We elaborate on each of these themes within.Against this backdrop, there are limited economic announcements which could impact the Treasury market over the next few weeks. Meanwhile, Japanese investors may find buying US$ denominated bonds attractive after hedging the currency risk. This may be risk asset supportive going forward.  We review this inside.In the bank credit markets, March’s carry trade outperformance continued to unwind as shorter-duration bonds outperformed during the week. All recent higher coupon outperformers experienced large spread declines. Even the Turkish bank credit curve behaved in a manner consistent with other bonds globally, rather than trade at a discount. We identify the winners and losers.In China, while the immediate threat of Credit Armageddon may be lower, the ultimate game plan for China Huarong Asset Management is yet to be known. As such, the market may remain skittish while trading opportunities remain amongst the other asset management companies. Please see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/50463/China%20Huarong:%20Contagion%20Creates%20Opportunity.%20Read%20more:%20https:/skr.ma/SmFJQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China Huarong: Contagion Creates Opportunity</a> for more details.US banks set a high bar for performance by announcing stellar investment banking and progressively improving core banking results last week. Then they signaled that they anticipate significantly higher interest rates later this year by hitting the market for record breaking amounts. Middle East- and Asia-headquartered banks may lead the headlines next week. Amongst major European names, only Credit Suisse is scheduled to provide final Q1 results on Tuesday, 20 April. For our thoughts, please see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/50463/Credit%20Suisse:%20Skating%20on%20a%20Thin%20Layer%20of%20Capital.%20Read%20more:%20https:/skr.ma/rGLd5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse: Skating on a Thin Layer of Capital</a>.Market Outlook: Already looking past upcoming spikes in inflation and job creation, the Treasury market is repricing for lower growth and lower rates over a longer time-period. This should be risk asset supportive as the US dollar finally weakens. The risk is that of impotent monetary policy and a constrained fiscal response in a shorter than expected business cycle.

Executive Summary: The narrative has changed and there is little to stand in the way of further Treasury market strength near term. This should lead to US dollar weakness and may be Emerging Market risk asset supportive. Nonetheless, we suspect that Asia will remain driven by concerns that China is tightening which could constrain investor sentiment in this market.Trading volume-, Treasury issuance- and economic data-risks were no match for short-position unwinding, data reappraisal, and Japanese investor re-entry into the Treasury bond market over the last week. Treasury yields continued their retracement, posting their biggest weekly rally since August. Furthermore, after the worst quarter since 1980, Treasuries have gained around 1% this month, paring 2021 losses to about 3.3%. We may have seen a sell-the-rumor, buy-the-fact market event occur with respect to Treasuries and the better-than-expected March economic data set.The narrative has changed to one that is Treasury bond supportive. Fixed income markets are discounting lower economic growth and price expectations. Scenarios with a declining growth rate may be increasingly discounted in the Treasury markets. With GDP growth anticipated to tail-off over the next few quarters, sustainable wage growth may not materialize. Meanwhile, supply chain bottlenecks and rising producer prices may negatively impact corporate margins rather than consumer wallets. We elaborate on each of these themes within.Against this backdrop, there are limited economic announcements which could impact the Treasury market over the next few weeks. Meanwhile, Japanese investors may find buying US$ denominated bonds attractive after hedging the currency risk. This may be risk asset supportive going forward.  We review this inside.In the bank credit markets, March’s carry trade outperformance continued to unwind as shorter-duration bonds outperformed during the week. All recent higher coupon outperformers experienced large spread declines. Even the Turkish bank credit curve behaved in a manner consistent with other bonds globally, rather than trade at a discount. We identify the winners and losers.In China, while the immediate threat of Credit Armageddon may be lower, the ultimate game plan for China Huarong Asset Management is yet to be known. As such, the market may remain skittish while trading opportunities remain amongst the other asset management companies. Please see: China Huarong: Contagion Creates Opportunity for more details.US banks set a high bar for performance by announcing stellar investment banking and progressively improving core banking results last week. Then they signaled that they anticipate significantly higher interest rates later this year by hitting the market for record breaking amounts. Middle East- and Asia-headquartered banks may lead the headlines next week. Amongst major European names, only Credit Suisse is scheduled to provide final Q1 results on Tuesday, 20 April. For our thoughts, please see: Credit Suisse: Skating on a Thin Layer of Capital.Market Outlook: Already looking past upcoming spikes in inflation and job creation, the Treasury market is repricing for lower growth and lower rates over a longer time-period. This should be risk asset supportive as the US dollar finally weakens. The risk is that of impotent monetary policy and a constrained fiscal response in a shorter than expected business cycle.  

Bank Credit Weekly: Narrative Change Pushes Carry-Trade Unwind as Treasuries Rally

It is difficult to make a truly bullish argument on behalf of US Treasuries now. The bottom line is it is still not time to buy duration. Risk yes. Duration no. Emerging Markets? It depends.The Fed re-anchored short-term, front-end, interest rate expectations via the Dot Plot, the Chairman’s comments, and actions to aid the overnight rate market. Overall, it was a better-than-expected communique from the Fed. With a spike of inflation next on the horizon, it may be a hard act to follow.Inflation can hide a host of sins. It can benefit financials and borrowers, but not the vulnerable in society, as inflation is a regressive tax. From a financial market perspective, it is difficult to envision a near-term spike in inflation as being credit positive. Market interest rates may overshoot as insurance against out-of-control inflation expectations. Risk assets, in particular Emerging Market assets, could over-react while the Fed under-reacts.The risk is that US policy makers are “fighting the last war.” Rather than continued curve steepening, we may see a period of consolidation, as short-end interest rate expectations rise at a faster rate,  essentially flattening the yield curve. We expect the Fed to be on watch for this.For financials, we anticipate improved net interest income levels during Q2 as both volume and yields rise. This would also result in higher non-interest income revenues as fee income soars from increased transactions. However, trading activity may see some institutions off-sides in terms of mistiming the market. We believe that it is better to be in banks with solid core operating revenues, rather than firms that have rediscovered and become over-reliant, once again, on trading activity.The recent back-up in US interest rates may be an opportunity to reload in some Emerging Markets (EM), just not in Turkey. Central bank independence is shattered once again by the firing of the Central Bank Governor. Only four months into the role, the former Governor is being replaced by an interest rate dove. We expect a large correction in Turkish bank bond as the markets digest this implausible reality next week. It may be better to focus on opportunities off the radar. EM high yield, but low duration, sovereign and more frontier bonds may be the answer. We cite a few inside.In terms of recent performance, in Asia, short duration and long risk bank bonds kept pace with Treasury weakness to end the week unchanged on a total return basis. Meanwhile, longer-dated European bank Contingent Capital (CoCos) managed to keep pace with Treasury market weakness to end the week unchanged on a total return basis. Each Additional Tier 1 bond callable in 2030 and 2031 tightened by 10 basis points. Given the simultaneous tightening, we ascribe this performance as due a restart of the AstraZeneca shot across the lagging EU’s vaccine effort. A third round of lockdowns may unwind these gains next week. Market Outlook: The US economy may run very hot before we see a change in Fed policy regarding short-term interest rates and the US dollar should remain stronger than analysts forecasted at year-end. Broadly, this is not Emerging Market friendly; however, a strong US economic rebound should benefit EM and European financials. First, we may need to get past the upcoming inflation spike.

It is difficult to make a truly bullish argument on behalf of US Treasuries now. The bottom line is it is still not time to buy duration. Risk yes. Duration no. Emerging Markets? It depends.The Fed re-anchored short-term, front-end, interest rate expectations via the Dot Plot, the Chairman’s comments, and actions to aid the overnight rate market. Overall, it was a better-than-expected communique from the Fed. With a spike of inflation next on the horizon, it may be a hard act to follow.Inflation can hide a host of sins. It can benefit financials and borrowers, but not the vulnerable in society, as inflation is a regressive tax. From a financial market perspective, it is difficult to envision a near-term spike in inflation as being credit positive. Market interest rates may overshoot as insurance against out-of-control inflation expectations. Risk assets, in particular Emerging Market assets, could over-react while the Fed under-reacts.The risk is that US policy makers are “fighting the last war.” Rather than continued curve steepening, we may see a period of consolidation, as short-end interest rate expectations rise at a faster rate,  essentially flattening the yield curve. We expect the Fed to be on watch for this.For financials, we anticipate improved net interest income levels during Q2 as both volume and yields rise. This would also result in higher non-interest income revenues as fee income soars from increased transactions. However, trading activity may see some institutions off-sides in terms of mistiming the market. We believe that it is better to be in banks with solid core operating revenues, rather than firms that have rediscovered and become over-reliant, once again, on trading activity.The recent back-up in US interest rates may be an opportunity to reload in some Emerging Markets (EM), just not in Turkey. Central bank independence is shattered once again by the firing of the Central Bank Governor. Only four months into the role, the former Governor is being replaced by an interest rate dove. We expect a large correction in Turkish bank bond as the markets digest this implausible reality next week. It may be better to focus on opportunities off the radar. EM high yield, but low duration, sovereign and more frontier bonds may be the answer. We cite a few inside.In terms of recent performance, in Asia, short duration and long risk bank bonds kept pace with Treasury weakness to end the week unchanged on a total return basis. Meanwhile, longer-dated European bank Contingent Capital (CoCos) managed to keep pace with Treasury market weakness to end the week unchanged on a total return basis. Each Additional Tier 1 bond callable in 2030 and 2031 tightened by 10 basis points. Given the simultaneous tightening, we ascribe this performance as due a restart of the AstraZeneca shot across the lagging EU’s vaccine effort. A third round of lockdowns may unwind these gains next week. Market Outlook: The US economy may run very hot before we see a change in Fed policy regarding short-term interest rates and the US dollar should remain stronger than analysts forecasted at year-end. Broadly, this is not Emerging Market friendly; however, a strong US economic rebound should benefit EM and European financials. First, we may need to get past the upcoming inflation spike.

Bank Credit Weekly: Inflation, the Next Market Challenge or Opportunity?

Stronger than expected US employment data combined with uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s next steps to drive broader credit markets wider by weekend, although financials remained better bid. Taperless tantrums may be repeated over the near term but financials may be less impacted.While US CCC-rated bonds and Asia High Yield sold-off, almost all European contingent capital and Asia High Yield bonds tightened in credit spread terms as investors remained anchored to banks as an economic recovery play. Investors grabbed longer duration Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds as the week progressed, on economic strength expectations, while lower duration Senior Unsecured bonds outperformed on rising interest rate expectations. Friday’s non-farm report generated concerns on European growth in a rising rate environment. Queue central bank assurances that they will respond to rising rates over the next few weeks.Despite higher spreads available in more moderate duration AT1 notes, Europe's outperformers were almost exclusively long duration bonds. This outperformance is a very bullish signal. However, we are not convinced that this should apply to each of these institutions.  Please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/credit-suisse-greensill-sows-reputation-risks-underweight-cs-bonds" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48839" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse: Greensill Sows Reputation Risks, Underweight CS Bonds</a> for further details.Financials remain the sweet spot in Asia credit. Levered to the economy and rising rates, this is the place to be at this point in the market cycle.  Performance attributes varied amongst the various bank credit classes in Asia. Risk-on sentiment drove higher risk AT1 and less subordinated Tier 2 bonds tighter. Meanwhile duration concerns drove investors to target higher spreads per unit of duration in BBB-rated and High Yield Senior Unsecured notes. Taken together, this performance outcome is likely evidence of the melt-up in spreads that we anticipated several weeks ago. Please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-credit-strategy-melt-up-before-meltdown-where-to-position" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48133" rel="noopener">Bank Credit Strategy: Melt-Up Before Meltdown, Where to Position</a> for more details.Admittedly, however, we are surprised by the credit strength of Asia-headquartered financials during the global rates rout. We attribute this to two items. First, China is further along the Covid-19 curve in recovery and will clearly benefit as the rest of the world catches-up. Second, financials are a leverage play on the global recovery. Taken together, Asia financials overall are well placed to continue outperforming other markets over the near term.Market Outlook: The Fed will likely Twist before it Tapers, but the timing of both remain uncertain as real long term interest rates remain negative. In the interim, global treasury markets may remain unsettled. The US economy may run very hot before we see a change in Fed policy regarding short-term interest rates and the US dollar should remain stronger than analysts forecasted at year-end. Broadly, this is not Emerging Market IEM) friendly; however, a strong US economic rebound should benefit EM and European financials. Short duration in investment grade financials combined with high credit spreads in High Yield financials and more subordinated debt may remain the way forward.

Stronger than expected US employment data combined with uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s next steps to drive broader credit markets wider by weekend, although financials remained better bid. Taperless tantrums may be repeated over the near term but financials may be less impacted.While US CCC-rated bonds and Asia High Yield sold-off, almost all European contingent capital and Asia High Yield bonds tightened in credit spread terms as investors remained anchored to banks as an economic recovery play. Investors grabbed longer duration Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds as the week progressed, on economic strength expectations, while lower duration Senior Unsecured bonds outperformed on rising interest rate expectations. Friday’s non-farm report generated concerns on European growth in a rising rate environment. Queue central bank assurances that they will respond to rising rates over the next few weeks.Despite higher spreads available in more moderate duration AT1 notes, Europe's outperformers were almost exclusively long duration bonds. This outperformance is a very bullish signal. However, we are not convinced that this should apply to each of these institutions.  Please see Credit Suisse: Greensill Sows Reputation Risks, Underweight CS Bonds for further details.Financials remain the sweet spot in Asia credit. Levered to the economy and rising rates, this is the place to be at this point in the market cycle.  Performance attributes varied amongst the various bank credit classes in Asia. Risk-on sentiment drove higher risk AT1 and less subordinated Tier 2 bonds tighter. Meanwhile duration concerns drove investors to target higher spreads per unit of duration in BBB-rated and High Yield Senior Unsecured notes. Taken together, this performance outcome is likely evidence of the melt-up in spreads that we anticipated several weeks ago. Please see Bank Credit Strategy: Melt-Up Before Meltdown, Where to Position for more details.Admittedly, however, we are surprised by the credit strength of Asia-headquartered financials during the global rates rout. We attribute this to two items. First, China is further along the Covid-19 curve in recovery and will clearly benefit as the rest of the world catches-up. Second, financials are a leverage play on the global recovery. Taken together, Asia financials overall are well placed to continue outperforming other markets over the near term.Market Outlook: The Fed will likely Twist before it Tapers, but the timing of both remain uncertain as real long term interest rates remain negative. In the interim, global treasury markets may remain unsettled. The US economy may run very hot before we see a change in Fed policy regarding short-term interest rates and the US dollar should remain stronger than analysts forecasted at year-end. Broadly, this is not Emerging Market IEM) friendly; however, a strong US economic rebound should benefit EM and European financials. Short duration in investment grade financials combined with high credit spreads in High Yield financials and more subordinated debt may remain the way forward.

Bank Credit Weekly: One Size Does Not Fit All

Asia headquartered banks fared well despite the global tantrum without taper in the Treasury markets. Asia headquartered bond prices fell by less than their benchmark Treasury market notes, resulting in a bout of credit outperformance. Almost all bonds tightened in credit spread terms as investors remained anchored to banks as an economic recovery play. Moderate duration, lower risk, bonds continued to outperform, although there were pockets of outperformance in China-headquartered Additional Tier 1 bonds.Bonds in the belly of the curve, that is those maturing or callable in five-years, outperformed longer dated notes. Moderate duration bonds led as investors lost faith in an inflation free economic recovery which would cap market rate rises. This is the opposite of last weeks’ performance, wherein even longer-duration note outperformed. That seemed odd given policymakers repeated statements that they would let the US economy run hot at the risk of stoking inflation. The rapid sell-off in US Treasuries during the week is evidence of market jitters regarding eventual inflation expectations.The pressure on U.S. Treasuries is largely in-line with what we have been cautioning on since the Senate run-off results in Georgia last month. Friday’s correction at the long end may be tested again.Admittedly, however, we are surprised by the credit strength of Asia-headquartered financials during the global rates rout. We attribute this to two items. First, China is further along the Covid-19 curve in recovery and will clearly benefit as the rest of the world catches-up. Second, financials are a leverage play on the global recovery. Taken together, Asia financials overall are well placed to continue outperforming other markets over the near term.Given the rate of change over the last two weeks, things are moving fast. We identify potential opportunities within. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/state-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:160:1" rel="noopener">State Bank of India (SBIN IN)</a> represents one credit curve where better opportunities exist in shorter duration bonds, however, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ)</a> may offer even better values, as we note within.Market Outlook: This week’s Treasury market tantrum was not induced by Fed tapering, but it is a reminder of what it may look like when the Fed does dial back its asset purchases. Combined with the strength of the risk-on moves, this makes us uneasy. Financial repression creates a market, which in its nature, is always a one-sided bet with the Fed / ECB/ BOJ.  There is limited price discover as the market is simply sentiment driven. Credit value should remain driven by larger market forces. However, we may be fast approaching a point where the market outpaces the rate of expected economic recovery, and / or the market outpaces the rate that can be achieved without incurring substantial financial stability concerns. Our preference is for lower duration bonds, preferably in the belly of the curve. Please see our recent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-macro-manifest-risk-rally-gathers-steam-as-bad-news-more-stimulus" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bank Macro Manifest</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-credit-strategy-melt-up-before-meltdown-where-to-position" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bank Credit Strategy</a> notes for more details.

Asia headquartered banks fared well despite the global tantrum without taper in the Treasury markets. Asia headquartered bond prices fell by less than their benchmark Treasury market notes, resulting in a bout of credit outperformance. Almost all bonds tightened in credit spread terms as investors remained anchored to banks as an economic recovery play. Moderate duration, lower risk, bonds continued to outperform, although there were pockets of outperformance in China-headquartered Additional Tier 1 bonds.Bonds in the belly of the curve, that is those maturing or callable in five-years, outperformed longer dated notes. Moderate duration bonds led as investors lost faith in an inflation free economic recovery which would cap market rate rises. This is the opposite of last weeks’ performance, wherein even longer-duration note outperformed. That seemed odd given policymakers repeated statements that they would let the US economy run hot at the risk of stoking inflation. The rapid sell-off in US Treasuries during the week is evidence of market jitters regarding eventual inflation expectations.The pressure on U.S. Treasuries is largely in-line with what we have been cautioning on since the Senate run-off results in Georgia last month. Friday’s correction at the long end may be tested again.Admittedly, however, we are surprised by the credit strength of Asia-headquartered financials during the global rates rout. We attribute this to two items. First, China is further along the Covid-19 curve in recovery and will clearly benefit as the rest of the world catches-up. Second, financials are a leverage play on the global recovery. Taken together, Asia financials overall are well placed to continue outperforming other markets over the near term.Given the rate of change over the last two weeks, things are moving fast. We identify potential opportunities within. State Bank of India (SBIN IN) represents one credit curve where better opportunities exist in shorter duration bonds, however, Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) may offer even better values, as we note within.Market Outlook: This week’s Treasury market tantrum was not induced by Fed tapering, but it is a reminder of what it may look like when the Fed does dial back its asset purchases. Combined with the strength of the risk-on moves, this makes us uneasy. Financial repression creates a market, which in its nature, is always a one-sided bet with the Fed / ECB/ BOJ.  There is limited price discover as the market is simply sentiment driven. Credit value should remain driven by larger market forces. However, we may be fast approaching a point where the market outpaces the rate of expected economic recovery, and / or the market outpaces the rate that can be achieved without incurring substantial financial stability concerns. Our preference is for lower duration bonds, preferably in the belly of the curve. Please see our recent Bank Macro Manifest and Bank Credit Strategy notes for more details.

Bank Credit Weekly: Asia Credit Outperforms Despite Treasury Tantrum

Turkey

Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi AS offers retail and corporate banking, factoring, leasing, asset and wealth management, capital markets, securities brokerage, insurance services and pension products.  The Group has interests in publishing, real estate and telecommunications companies.

Yapi Ve Kredi Bankasi As (YKBNK TI)

Bank Credit Weekly: Momentum Slows as Conviction Is Lacking

Momentum behind the Treasury market started to slow. Greater conviction is likely to build over the weeks which follow as economic data is...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Bank Credit Weekly: Narrative Change Pushes Carry-Trade Unwind as Treasuries Rally

The narrative has changed. There is little to stand in the way of further Treasury market strength near term. This should lead to US$ weakness and...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Bank Credit Weekly: Inflation, the Next Market Challenge or Opportunity?

The recent back-up in US rates may be an opportunity to reload in some Emerging Markets. A US inflation spike is the next hurdle. EM High Yield,...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Bank Credit Weekly: One Size Does Not Fit All

Performance attributes varied amongst bank credit classes. Short duration in IG financials combined with high credit spreads in HY and more...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Bank Credit Weekly: Asia Credit Outperforms Despite Treasury Tantrum

Global bank bond prices fell by less than their benchmark notes, resulting in a bout of credit outperformance. Given the rate of change, there are...

Hank Calenti, CFA