Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Giant Network Group Co Ltd / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>We remain overweight/continue to have a major focus on China (Shanghai Composite). It continues to offer the most attractive opportunities, with a significant number of today's recommendations coming from China.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 and $119-$121.
We remain overweight/continue to have a major focus on China (Shanghai Composite). It continues to offer the most attractive opportunities, with a significant number of today's recommendations coming from China.


Sticking With China; Bullish Outlook Intact. Buys in Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Tech

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There could be up to 10 adds/ 29 deletes for the China global index in February. The actual number of changes will be smaller depending on the review date chosen.</li>
<li>The flow on the forecast adds varies from US$17.5m-US$175m (0.05x-15x ADV) while the flow on the forecast deletes varies from US$14.4m-US$100.4m (0.25x-22.75x ADV).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bestechnic-shanghai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33459:1" rel="noopener">Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH)</a> is a potential inclusion to multiple indices in June and there will be much larger passive flows to the stock then.</li>
</ul>


There could be up to 10 adds/ 29 deletes for the China global index in February. The actual number of changes will be smaller depending on the review date chosen.
The flow on the forecast adds varies from US$17.5m-US$175m (0.05x-15x ADV) while the flow on the forecast deletes varies from US$14.4m-US$100.4m (0.25x-22.75x ADV).

Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) is a potential inclusion to multiple indices in June and there will be much larger passive flows to the stock then.


China/HK: Passive Activity Expected Later This Month

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education, Research From Beijing

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>This is a big topic that I find myself addressing to investors each quarter for the past 10 years as a steel analyst from where I live in Beijing, China. No steel production cuts have been made by the government and none are expected in the near term. </p><p>The evidence for this view is clear looking at crude steel production data, we see record high levels of production out of China in September.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/016/382/original/crude%20steel.png?1479190556" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="16382"></figure><div class="content-caption">Figure 1: World Crude Steel Production - 139m tonnes in September up 2% YoY</div><div class="content-remarks"><p>Source: <a href="http://www.worldsteel.org/media-centre/press-releases/2016/September-2016-crude-steel-production.html" target="_blank">http://www.worldsteel.o</a>…</p></div>

This is a big topic that I find myself addressing to investors each quarter for the past 10 years as a steel analyst from where I live in Beijing, China. No steel production cuts have been made by the government and none are expected in the near term. The evidence for this view is clear looking at crude steel production data, we see record high levels of production out of China in September.Figure 1: World Crude Steel Production - 139m tonnes in September up 2% YoYSource: http://www.worldsteel.o…

Steel in China- No Government Capacity Shutdown

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

<p>As we have noted numerous time before, the result of so much money and credit creation is that there is a lot more capital chasing fewer and fewer good investment options.  Furthermore, given the spillovers into global markets, bubbles in China can create rapid price increases elsewhere.</p><p>This leads to two specific conclusions when looking for trading opportunities.  First, look for short opportunities in Chinese assets that have seen large rapid price increases.  This has happened repeatedly to…</p>

As we have noted numerous time before, the result of so much money and credit creation is that there is a lot more capital chasing fewer and fewer good investment options.  Furthermore, given the spillovers into global markets, bubbles in China can create rapid price increases elsewhere.This leads to two specific conclusions when looking for trading opportunities.  First, look for short opportunities in Chinese assets that have seen large rapid price increases.  This has happened repeatedly to…

Silver Is the Latest Chinese Little Short

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

<ul><li class="p1">The recent rally in bulk commodity miners will end in tears.</li><li class="p1">Iron ore has risen to $60 per tonne from a bottom of $37 in December, with leveraged mining stocks more than doubling from recent lows.</li><li class="p1">We expect falling Chinese steel demand and rising Chinese steel scrap availability to cut iron ore prices by half.</li><li class="p1">Shares of several heavily indebted producers are likely to fall by more than 50%.</li><li class="p1">Our long-run forecasts are $30 per tonne for iron ore (versus consensus $55) and $75 per tonne for metallurgical coal (versus consensus $110).</li></ul><p><em>Analysts: David Wang, Daniel Rohr, Mathew Hodge &amp; Andrew Lane</em></p>

The recent rally in bulk commodity miners will end in tears.Iron ore has risen to $60 per tonne from a bottom of $37 in December, with leveraged mining stocks more than doubling from recent lows.We expect falling Chinese steel demand and rising Chinese steel scrap availability to cut iron ore prices by half.Shares of several heavily indebted producers are likely to fall by more than 50%.Our long-run forecasts are $30 per tonne for iron ore (versus consensus $55) and $75 per tonne for metallurgical coal (versus consensus $110).Analysts: David Wang, Daniel Rohr, Mathew Hodge &amp; Andrew Lane

Dawn of the Scrap Age: Iron Ore and Met Coal Will Suffer as China's Scrap Supply Rises.

China

Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. produces and markets tin, tin alloy products, and tin chemicals.  The Company sells its tin products under the YT trade mark.

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Yunnan Tin Co Ltd A (000960 CH)

Sticking With China; Bullish Outlook Intact. Buys in Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Tech

Still Bullish. China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 Int'l Compass titled "China and Japan Breaking Out." It...

Vermilion Research

China/HK: Passive Activity Expected Later This Month

There could be up to 10 adds/29 deletes for China in Feb. Flow varies from US$14m-175m and impact from 0.05x-22.75x ADV. Bestechnic Shanghai is a...

Brian Freitas

Steel in China- No Government Capacity Shutdown

This is a big topic that I find myself addressing to investors each quarter for the past 10 years as a steel analyst from where I live in Beijing,...

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

Silver Is the Latest Chinese Little Short

As we have noted numerous time before, the result of so much money and credit creation is that there is a lot more capital chasing fewer and fewer...

Christopher Balding

Dawn of the Scrap Age: Iron Ore and Met Coal Will Suffer as China's Scrap Supply Rises.

The recent rally in bulk commodity miners will end in tears. Iron ore has risen to $60 per tonne from a bottom of $37 in December, with leveraged...

Morningstar, Inc.

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