Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 2.9% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 21.96bn (US$3.1bn). There are 22 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Impact on the stocks has increased as creations in ETFs linked to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> continue. That flow will reverse from the deletions in the next few months.</li>
</ul>


There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.
We estimate one-way turnover of 2.9% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 21.96bn (US$3.1bn). There are 22 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade.
Impact on the stocks has increased as creations in ETFs linked to the CSI 300 Index continue. That flow will reverse from the deletions in the next few months.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade Tops US$6bn as ETF Creations Soar

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 9th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$2,018.4 million, led by information technology, consumer discretionary, financials, and offset by health care, consumer staples, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing, Midea, CATL, Zhongji Innolight.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 9th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$2,018.4 million, led by information technology, consumer discretionary, financials, and offset by health care, consumer staples, utilities.
We highlight flows for Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing, Midea, CATL, Zhongji Innolight.


Northbound Flows (Aug 9th): Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing, Midea, CATL, Zhongji Innolight

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Consumer Staples ($962 million worth of outflows), Consumer Discretionary ($561 million worth of outflows) led the outflows (first chart below).</li>
<li>We highlight monthly outflows for CATL, Zhongji, Moutai, Wuliangye, Mindray.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Consumer Staples ($962 million worth of outflows), Consumer Discretionary ($561 million worth of outflows) led the outflows (first chart below).
We highlight monthly outflows for CATL, Zhongji, Moutai, Wuliangye, Mindray.


Northbound Flows (July): Two Months of Outflows

<ul>
<li>There could be 18 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 5 spots.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 3.3% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 22.07bn (US$3bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes. There were ETF inflows last week amid a short selling crackdown as the Third Plenum kicks off.</li>
</ul>


There could be 18 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 5 spots.
We estimate one-way turnover of 3.3% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 22.07bn (US$3bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes. There were ETF inflows last week amid a short selling crackdown as the Third Plenum kicks off.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Financials, Materials, Health Care led the inflows while Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services led the outflows (first chart below).</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into CATL, CMB, BOE, Haier Smart Home, and outflows from China Tourism, Moutai, Nari Technology, Focus Media and Seres</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Financials, Materials, Health Care led the inflows while Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services led the outflows (first chart below).
We highlight inflows into CATL, CMB, BOE, Haier Smart Home, and outflows from China Tourism, Moutai, Nari Technology, Focus Media and Seres


Northbound Flows (April): CATL, CMB, BOE, Haier Smart Home, China Tourism, Moutai, Nari Technology

China

Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets medium and large size buses.

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Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Co A (600066 CH)

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade Tops US$6bn as ETF Creations Soar

There could be 17 changes in Dec resulting in a round-trip trade of over US$6bn. 22 stocks have over 3x ADV to trade. The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

Northbound Flows (Aug 9th): Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing, Midea, CATL, Zhongji Innolight

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing, Midea,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (July): Two Months of Outflows

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for July and highlight outflows for CATL, Zhongji, Moutai, Wuliangye, Mindray.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown

There could be 18 changes in December. The adds have outperformed the deletes but near-term performance has been meh. There were ETF inflows last...

Brian Freitas

Northbound Flows (April): CATL, CMB, BOE, Haier Smart Home, China Tourism, Moutai, Nari Technology

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for April and highlight flows for CATL, CMB, BOE, Haier Smart Home, and outflows from China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)