Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>High Growth: ~80% production increase (36t to 65t, 2024–27E) via Buriticá, Aurora, Porgera, Central Asia.</li>
<li>Valuation: Filing suggests US$12–16bn (US$3–4bn raise, 6–7.5× EV/EBITDA); market eyes US$30–40bn.</li>
<li>Key Dynamics: SOE-backed expansion; risks in EM execution and AISC (~US$1,350/oz by 2027E).</li>
</ul>


High Growth: ~80% production increase (36t to 65t, 2024–27E) via Buriticá, Aurora, Porgera, Central Asia.
Valuation: Filing suggests US$12–16bn (US$3–4bn raise, 6–7.5× EV/EBITDA); market eyes US$30–40bn.
Key Dynamics: SOE-backed expansion; risks in EM execution and AISC (~US$1,350/oz by 2027E).


Zijin Gold Int'l IPO Preview: High-Growth Gold Mining Leader (PHIP, 14 Sep 2025)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2579355D HK)</a> is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24628:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)</a>. It is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$3bn.  </li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO and outlined my investment thesis in <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zijin-gold-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:201176" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case</a></em></strong>. </li>
<li>In this note, I take a look at the new information from the PHIP. The 1H25 results and latest developments underscore my previous bullish thesis. </li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) is a global leading gold mining company and the overseas gold segment of Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH). It is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$3bn.  
I previously discussed the IPO and outlined my investment thesis in Zijin Gold IPO: The Investment Case. 
In this note, I take a look at the new information from the PHIP. The 1H25 results and latest developments underscore my previous bullish thesis. 


Zijin Gold IPO: PHIP Updates Support the Investment Thesis

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 57.8% as of Sep 12th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -2.5ppt week-on-week, led by information technology, consumer staples, financials and offset by consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Longyuan Power, Fudan Microelectronics, Zijin Mining, CSSC O&amp;M Engineering, Baiyunshan Pharma, SMIC.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 57.8% as of Sep 12th.
The average A-H premium changed by -2.5ppt week-on-week, led by information technology, consumer staples, financials and offset by consumer discretionary.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Longyuan Power, Fudan Microelectronics, Zijin Mining, CSSC O&amp;M Engineering, Baiyunshan Pharma, SMIC.


A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 12th): China Longyuan Power, Fudan Microelectronics, Zijin Mining

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 5th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Horizon Robotics, Tencent, CCB, Shandong Gold Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 5th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Horizon Robotics, Tencent, CCB, Shandong Gold Mining.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Horizon Robotics, Tencent, CCB, Shandong Gold Mining

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Dilution: The gold IPO trims attributable EBITDA by ~3% as minority interests rise.</li>
<li>Parent Impact: Zijin parent emerges leaner, with net debt falling by US$4bn and copper now ~70% of EBITDA.</li>
<li>Valuation: At ~7× EV/EBITDA, the stock offers 15–30% upside on our estimates, stretching to 25–45% at spot.</li>
</ul>


Dilution: The gold IPO trims attributable EBITDA by ~3% as minority interests rise.
Parent Impact: Zijin parent emerges leaner, with net debt falling by US$4bn and copper now ~70% of EBITDA.
Valuation: At ~7× EV/EBITDA, the stock offers 15–30% upside on our estimates, stretching to 25–45% at spot.


Zijin Mining: Gold IPO De-Risks, Copper Upside Remains

China

Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, explores, mines, produces, refines, and sells gold and other mineral resources in China.

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Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)

Zijin Gold Int'l IPO Preview: High-Growth Gold Mining Leader (PHIP, 14 Sep 2025)

Article highlights significant production increase and valuation potential in gold mining sector, with emphasis on expansion risks and cost...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Gold IPO: PHIP Updates Support the Investment Thesis

In this note, I take a look at the new information from the PHIP. The 1H25 results and latest developments underscore my previous bullish thesis.

Arun George

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 12th): China Longyuan Power, Fudan Microelectronics, Zijin Mining

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Longyuan Power, Fudan Microelectronics, Zijin Mining,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Horizon Robotics, Tencent, CCB, Shandong Gold Mining

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 5th and highlight short interest changes in Horizon Robotics, Tencent,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Zijin Mining: Gold IPO De-Risks, Copper Upside Remains

Zijin's gold IPO slightly reduces att. EBITDA, but parent company sees positive impact with lower debt and increased focus on copper, offering...

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Zijin Gold Int'l IPO Preview: High-Growth Gold Mining Leader (PHIP, 14 Sep 2025)

​Article highlights significant production increase and valuation potential in gold mining sector, with emphasis on expansion risks and cost...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Gold IPO: PHIP Updates Support the Investment Thesis

In this note, I take a look at the new information from the PHIP. The 1H25 results and latest developments underscore my previous bullish thesis.

Arun George

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 12th): China Longyuan Power, Fudan Microelectronics, Zijin Mining

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Longyuan Power, Fudan Microelectronics, Zijin Mining,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Horizon Robotics, Tencent, CCB, Shandong Gold Mining

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 5th and highlight short interest changes in Horizon Robotics, Tencent,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Zijin Mining: Gold IPO De-Risks, Copper Upside Remains

​Zijin's gold IPO slightly reduces att. EBITDA, but parent company sees positive impact with lower debt and increased focus on copper, offering...

Rahul Jain

Article highlights significant production increase and valuation potential in gold mining sector, with emphasis on expansion risks and cost...

Zijin's gold IPO slightly reduces att. EBITDA, but parent company sees positive impact with lower debt and increased focus on copper, offering...