Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Singapore government introduced a moratorium on new data centres in 2019</li>
<li>As result, incumbent data centre REITs recalibrated their portfolio strategy including to pursue DPU and NAV growth through accretive overseas acquisitions </li>
<li>In Q2 2022, the moratorium is expected to be lifted with conditional approvals for applicants that meet certain sustainability requirements. We discuss the implications for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-dc-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:85:1" rel="noopener">Keppel DC REIT (KDCREIT SP)</a> </li>
</ul>


Singapore government introduced a moratorium on new data centres in 2019
As result, incumbent data centre REITs recalibrated their portfolio strategy including to pursue DPU and NAV growth through accretive overseas acquisitions 
In Q2 2022, the moratorium is expected to be lifted with conditional approvals for applicants that meet certain sustainability requirements. We discuss the implications for Keppel DC REIT (KDCREIT SP) 


Keppel DC REIT (KDCREIT SP) - Imminent Lifting of SG Data Centre Moratorium and Its Implications

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<p>If the US equity markets have <strong>stay-home</strong> names such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peloton-interactive-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28014:1" rel="noopener">Peloton Interactive (PTON US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zoom-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28002:1" rel="noopener">Zoom Technologies Inc (ZOOM US)</a> , Indonesia has <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18869:1" rel="noopener">Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ)</a> as one of the stay home names besides the private internet behemoth such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokopedia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24239:1" rel="noopener">Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> . </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/216/533/original/image_71646866821625224195978.png?1625224195" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="216533"></figure>
<div class="content-remarks">
<p>source: Reuters</p>
</div>
<p>The outperformance was apparent although, during this time, 300 stores were closed during the earlier lockdown (PSBB).  Erajaya has established various methods during the previous lockdown that will bring the in-store experience to the customers' homes, keeping the potential for upselling of higher-margin accessories products. </p>

If the US equity markets have stay-home names such as Peloton Interactive (PTON US) and Zoom Technologies Inc (ZOOM US) , Indonesia has Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) as one of the stay home names besides the private internet behemoth such as Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ) and Gojek (1379371D IJ) . 


source: Reuters

The outperformance was apparent although, during this time, 300 stores were closed during the earlier lockdown (PSBB).  Erajaya has established various methods during the previous lockdown that will bring the in-store experience to the customers' homes, keeping the potential for upselling of higher-margin accessories products. 

Erajaya (ERAA): In-Store Experience to Your Home

<p>One thing that the Indonesian government did right during 2020 is the strict enforcement of IMEI registration in the country. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18869:1" rel="noopener">Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ)</a> is the key beneficiary to this and the only listed smartphone retailer in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jakarta-stock-exchange-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22914:1" rel="noopener">Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX)</a> with a decent market capitalization (USD 610 million). Besides <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industri-jamu-dan-farmasi-sido-muncul-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18869:1" rel="noopener">Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ)</a> seems to be another stock that benefited from COVID-19 through work-from-home and home-based-learnings arrangements. </p>
<p>This year, the share price has been hovering around IDR 2600-2850 level caused by a lack of short-term catalyst.  The IMEI rule has certainly been the key factor for last year's revenue growth but after this, what's next? The short-term outlook for having Erajaya pales in comparison to its long-term prospect therefore after making a 76% return in 6 months, maybe it is time to realized some profit in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18869:1" rel="noopener">Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ)</a> . </p>
<p>The long-term prospect remains bullish. As the smartphone penetration in Indonesia is set to increase from 70 to 89% in 2025, Erajaya is set to benefit from this although it is less appealing compared to the 2015 to 2020 period when the smartphone penetration jumped from 29% to 70% (130%).</p>

One thing that the Indonesian government did right during 2020 is the strict enforcement of IMEI registration in the country. Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) is the key beneficiary to this and the only listed smartphone retailer in Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX) with a decent market capitalization (USD 610 million). Besides Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) , Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) seems to be another stock that benefited from COVID-19 through work-from-home and home-based-learnings arrangements. 
This year, the share price has been hovering around IDR 2600-2850 level caused by a lack of short-term catalyst.  The IMEI rule has certainly been the key factor for last year's revenue growth but after this, what's next? The short-term outlook for having Erajaya pales in comparison to its long-term prospect therefore after making a 76% return in 6 months, maybe it is time to realized some profit in Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) . 
The long-term prospect remains bullish. As the smartphone penetration in Indonesia is set to increase from 70 to 89% in 2025, Erajaya is set to benefit from this although it is less appealing compared to the 2015 to 2020 period when the smartphone penetration jumped from 29% to 70% (130%).

Erajaya (ERAA): Lack of Short Term Catalyst but March on Long Term

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">Freee (4478 JP)</a> (freee) is looking to raise around US$400m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. </p>
<p>We had looked at the company at the time of listing, links to our previous notes are below: </p>
</div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/freee-pre-ipo-has-been-growing-fast-but-missing-data-points-leave-quite-a-few-niggling-doubts" target="_blank" rel="noopener">freee K.K. pre-IPO - Has been growing fast but missing data points leave quite a few niggling doubts,</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/freee-k-k-pre-ipo-the-battle-is-far-from-over" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Freee K. K. Pre-IPO - The Battle Is Far from Over,</a></li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/free-k-k-ipo-it-s-not-exactly-freee-but-looks-ok-at-the-lower-end" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Freee K.K. IPO - It’s Not Exactly Free but Looks Ok at the Lower-End</a>, and</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/freee-ipo-trading-priced-at-par-to-comp-it-now-boils-down-to-how-much-premium-it-can-trade-at" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Freee IPO Trading - Priced at Par to Comp, It Now Boils Down to How Much Premium It Can Trade At</a></li>
</ul></div><div><p>In this note, we'll run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about deal dynamics.</p></div>


Freee (4478 JP) (freee) is looking to raise around US$400m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. 
We had looked at the company at the time of listing, links to our previous notes are below: 

freee K.K. pre-IPO - Has been growing fast but missing data points leave quite a few niggling doubts,
Freee K. K. Pre-IPO - The Battle Is Far from Over,

Freee K.K. IPO - It’s Not Exactly Free but Looks Ok at the Lower-End, and
Freee IPO Trading - Priced at Par to Comp, It Now Boils Down to How Much Premium It Can Trade At
In this note, we'll run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about deal dynamics.

Freee Placement - Needs to Correct by a Whole Lot More

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/525/original/2020-07-17_06-19-01.png?1594934496" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146525"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/527/original/2020-07-17_06-37-29.png?1594935664" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146527"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • ZOOM</div><p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zoom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28943:1" rel="noopener">ZOOM (6694 JP)</a></strong>- Micro-cap ZOOM, not to be confused with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zoom-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28002:1" rel="noopener">ZOOM</a> US, although it appears many did just that in June, makes mobile audio recording equipment (as shown above) and was the only company that reported yesterday. The company has struggled in the wake of COVID-19 with parts shortages in China and the insolvency of two distribution companies in Europe which resulted in a ¥240 million impairment loss. Zoom has recently bought out the minorities in Zoom North America and will book a re-valuation gain which accounts for ¥178 million or two-thirds of the upward revision. Zoom has not generated positive operating cash flow since listing in March 2017 and has invested significantly in inventory and fixed assets for marginal residual returns. Despite yesterday's highly prescient 6.7% gain in Soom shares, we do not expect a second strike of lighting.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/528/original/2020-07-17_06-43-09.png?1594936605" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146528"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/529/original/2020-07-17_06-55-14.png?1594936629" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146529"></figure><div style="text-align: center;" class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><hr><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• COVID-19 •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/536/original/File%202020-07-17%202%2039%2040.jpeg?1594937209" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146536"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Our World In Data</div><p><strong>IN OTHER NEWS</strong> - Tokyo recorded a new recorded high in daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 yesterday, and Japan overall is back in the red-zone in the chart above with greater than 3% increase in the seven0day rolling average. In the last month, Japan has seen one of the fastest rates in case -count growth globally, and the reimposition of restrictions on social activity will soon be necessary. Such a change in direction is not yet discounted in the stock market. </p><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>6 Annual • 2 Interim Forecasts/Revision</strong>s</p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 1 Positive / 1 Neutral / 4 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 1 Positive / 0 Neutral / 1 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 0.8</li>
</ul></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsSource • ZOOMZOOM (6694 JP)- Micro-cap ZOOM, not to be confused with ZOOM US, although it appears many did just that in June, makes mobile audio recording equipment (as shown above) and was the only company that reported yesterday. The company has struggled in the wake of COVID-19 with parts shortages in China and the insolvency of two distribution companies in Europe which resulted in a ¥240 million impairment loss. Zoom has recently bought out the minorities in Zoom North America and will book a re-valuation gain which accounts for ¥178 million or two-thirds of the upward revision. Zoom has not generated positive operating cash flow since listing in March 2017 and has invested significantly in inventory and fixed assets for marginal residual returns. Despite yesterday's highly prescient 6.7% gain in Soom shares, we do not expect a second strike of lighting.Source • Japan Analytics• COVID-19 •Source • Our World In DataIN OTHER NEWS - Tokyo recorded a new recorded high in daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 yesterday, and Japan overall is back in the red-zone in the chart above with greater than 3% increase in the seven0day rolling average. In the last month, Japan has seen one of the fastest rates in case -count growth globally, and the reimposition of restrictions on social activity will soon be necessary. Such a change in direction is not yet discounted in the stock market. 

DAILY STATS
 6 Annual • 2 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 1 Positive / 1 Neutral / 4 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 1 Positive / 0 Neutral / 1 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: 0.8


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 16th July - The Other Zoom, ISI-D, Adastria

China

Zoom Technologies, Inc., through its subsidiaries manufactures, researches, develops and sells electronic communication products for the mobile phones, wireless communication circuitry, and related software products. The Company's products are both exported and sold domestically.

Zoom Technologies Inc (ZOOM US)

Keppel DC REIT (KDCREIT SP) - Imminent Lifting of SG Data Centre Moratorium and Its Implications

Singapore introduced a moratorium on new data centres which caused incumbents to recalibrate their strategy. With the moratorium expected to be...

Jason Yap, CFA

Erajaya (ERAA): In-Store Experience to Your Home

If US markets have stay-home names such as Peloton and Zoom, Indonesia has Erajaya Swasembada as one of the stay-home names besides the internet...

Henry Soediarko

Erajaya (ERAA): Lack of Short Term Catalyst but March on Long Term

The short-term outlook for having Erajaya pales in comparison to its long-term prospect therefore after a 76% return in 6 months, maybe it is time...

Henry Soediarko

Freee Placement - Needs to Correct by a Whole Lot More

Freee (4478 JP) (freee) is looking to raise around US$400m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. In this note, we'll run the deal...

Sumeet Singh

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 16th July - The Other Zoom, ISI-D, Adastria

ZOOM (6694 JP)- Micro-cap ZOOM, not to be confused with ZOOM US, although it appears many did just that in June, makes mobile audio recording...

Campbell Gunn