AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research, AlphaSituations

Robert Sassoon

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research

AlphaSituations

Since its establishment, AlphaSituations has delivered a track record of outperformance with a hit rate of winners of more than 70% of its portfolio of ideas generating annualized average returns of 20%. In January 2022, AlphaSituations was contracted by Water Tower Research, an investor engagement and stakeholder communication platform to provide coverage of Special Situations

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Microsoft's all cash acquisition of video game publisher Activision Blizzard is the biggest in the former's history and the largest ever transaction in the video gaming sector.</li>
<li>While intense regulatory scrutiny of the deal is expected, the arguments favoring high odds for eventual deal approval are reasonable. </li>
<li>We believe the 17% merger spread offers the prospect of  double-digits annualized return over the next 12 to 18 months.</li>
</ul>


Microsoft's all cash acquisition of video game publisher Activision Blizzard is the biggest in the former's history and the largest ever transaction in the video gaming sector.
While intense regulatory scrutiny of the deal is expected, the arguments favoring high odds for eventual deal approval are reasonable. 
We believe the 17% merger spread offers the prospect of  double-digits annualized return over the next 12 to 18 months.


MergerTalk: Microsoft/Activision Blizzard-Why We Think This Transaction May Not Be Such A Gamble

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><p>In between earnings seasons, we are trying to catch up on the flurry of TMT IPOs over the past few months that have caught our eye. Why AppLovin? As we talk about often, we are interested in unique business models, and AppLovin qualifies. Its choice to build up its own mobile game portfolio as a means of turbocharging the value of its software is highly differentiated. We've been tracking winners and losers from Apple's privacy changes this year and think a growing mobile app ecosystem with proprietary 1st party data is very interesting. Valuation seems reasonable. We will continue to track this one on the long side.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div></div></div>

In between earnings seasons, we are trying to catch up on the flurry of TMT IPOs over the past few months that have caught our eye. Why AppLovin? As we talk about often, we are interested in unique business models, and AppLovin qualifies. Its choice to build up its own mobile game portfolio as a means of turbocharging the value of its software is highly differentiated. We've been tracking winners and losers from Apple's privacy changes this year and think a growing mobile app ecosystem with proprietary 1st party data is very interesting. Valuation seems reasonable. We will continue to track this one on the long side.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

<p>Apple's quasi loss in the Epic lawsuit regarding app store take rates makes us all the more bullish on one of our favorite longs...Match Group. And also more bullish on Roblox (another long recommendation) and ATVI (less a beneficiary, but still a good entry point. We think Spotify and Netflix's benefits are overstated. Spotify has run too much on the news, and we think its potentially another good short entry point.</p>

Apple's quasi loss in the Epic lawsuit regarding app store take rates makes us all the more bullish on one of our favorite longs...Match Group. And also more bullish on Roblox (another long recommendation) and ATVI (less a beneficiary, but still a good entry point. We think Spotify and Netflix's benefits are overstated. Spotify has run too much on the news, and we think its potentially another good short entry point.

Apple's App Store Price Cut Beneficiaries

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With a population size similar to Vietnam and an overall GDP close to Indonesia (Malaysia, on a per capita basis), Turkey shares many similarities with Southeast Asian countries.</li>
<li>Strategically located between Asia and Europe, it has been a testing ground for companies trying to expand into Europe and the Middle East.</li>
<li>The country’s tech scene has been thriving in recent years and has attracted a lot of international attention.</li>
<li>Clear winners seemed to have emerged from various tech sectors with the potential listing in international capital markets in the coming years.</li>
<li>Looking at the development of other emerging markets, we believe exciting developments would be seen in the country's Fintech sector in the next 3 - 5 years.</li>
</ul>


With a population size similar to Vietnam and an overall GDP close to Indonesia (Malaysia, on a per capita basis), Turkey shares many similarities with Southeast Asian countries.
Strategically located between Asia and Europe, it has been a testing ground for companies trying to expand into Europe and the Middle East.
The country’s tech scene has been thriving in recent years and has attracted a lot of international attention.
Clear winners seemed to have emerged from various tech sectors with the potential listing in international capital markets in the coming years.
Looking at the development of other emerging markets, we believe exciting developments would be seen in the country's Fintech sector in the next 3 - 5 years.


Tech in Turkey: Through the Lens of Southeast Asia

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Zynga delivered strong results with record bookings and revenue and operating leverage that surpassed Wall Street expectations.</li><li>The company’s top-line beat was driven by robust advertising results by a hyper-casual portfolio of Rollic.</li><li>The company's integration with Chartboost is going perfectly well, and progress is being made in creating an advertising platform for next-generation mobile.</li></ul>

Zynga delivered strong results with record bookings and revenue and operating leverage that surpassed Wall Street expectations.The company’s top-line beat was driven by robust advertising results by a hyper-casual portfolio of Rollic.The company's integration with Chartboost is going perfectly well, and progress is being made in creating an advertising platform for next-generation mobile.

United States

Zynga Inc. operates as a social gaming company. The Company offers games and support on social networking sites, cellular devices, and internet forums. Zynga's gaming network includes puzzle, card, role-playing, and virtual world games for users worldwide.

Zynga Inc Cl A (ZNGA US)

MergerTalk: Microsoft/Activision Blizzard-Why We Think This Transaction May Not Be Such A Gamble

Why we think that the prospect of earning double-digits annualized returns from this transaction within the next 18 months might not be such a gamble

Robert Sassoon

Recent IPO Insights: AppLovin

AppLovin's choice to build up its own mobile game portfolio as a means of turbocharging the value of its software is highly differentiated. A...

Aaron Gabin

Apple's App Store Price Cut Beneficiaries

Apple's quasi loss in the Epic lawsuit regarding app store take rates makes us all the more bullish on one of our favorite longs...Match Group.

Aaron Gabin

Tech in Turkey: Through the Lens of Southeast Asia

The Insight targets to showcase Turkey by comparing it with Southeast Asia and looks into the tech scene that has been thriving in the country for...

Alec Tseung

Zynga Inc.: Investment Thesis

Zynga delivered strong results with record bookings and revenue and operating leverage that surpassed Wall Street expectations. The company’s...

Baptista Research