Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The overwhelming consensus for 2024 continues to be a soft landing in the US with interest rates coming firmly down while growth continues on autopilot, which leaves a very decent, almost goldilocksy, outlook for risk assets.</li>
<li>But what if we don’t end in a soft landing, but rather one of the tail-end scenarios of either 1) a boom driven by easier financial conditions, which would force the Fed to push back a bit on rate cuts or 2) a recession, which would imply rates much lower than what consensus currently is.</li>
<li>We have chosen 5 “likely unlikely” scenarios for 2024, which are not as unlikely as current market pricing indicates.</li>
</ul>


The overwhelming consensus for 2024 continues to be a soft landing in the US with interest rates coming firmly down while growth continues on autopilot, which leaves a very decent, almost goldilocksy, outlook for risk assets.
But what if we don’t end in a soft landing, but rather one of the tail-end scenarios of either 1) a boom driven by easier financial conditions, which would force the Fed to push back a bit on rate cuts or 2) a recession, which would imply rates much lower than what consensus currently is.
We have chosen 5 “likely unlikely” scenarios for 2024, which are not as unlikely as current market pricing indicates.


ishares msci usa equal weighted etf (EUSA US)

5 Things That Could Wrongfoot Consensus in 2024