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bullish
A Mistaken Attempt at Sounding Dovish
SUMMARY
- How do you assess whether the outcome of a Central Bank meeting was hawkish or dovish? Simple: you look at the delivered outcome against the probability distribution which was priced in before the meeting.
- It’s not an absolute but a relative assessment.
- Yesterday, the Fed delivered a 50 bps rate hike and a balance sheet run-off schedule which closely met expectations but the press conference turned to surprise expectations on the dovish side - and it was a mistaken attempt at sounding dovish, in my opinion.
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