Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cam Hui has been professionally involved in the financial markets since 1985 in a variety of roles, both as a quantitative equity portfolio manager and as a sell-side analyst. He graduated with a degree in Computer Science from the University of British Columbia in 1980 and obtained his CFA Charter in 1989.

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

United states / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In the past few months, there has been a cacophony of voices calling for a recession or significant slowdown in 2020, such as Ben Bernanke (via <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-07/bernanke-says-u-s-economy-faces-wile-e-coyote-moment-in-2020" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>) and Ray Dalio (via <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dalio-bridgewater-associates-next-recession-scenario-great-depression-parallels-2018-9" target="_blank">Business Insider</a>). <a href="https://t.co/cpKtcIOrIb" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a> reported that two-thirds of business economists expect a recession by the end of 2020.How close is the U.S. economy to a recession? We answer that question using the <a href="http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2015/11/forecasting-2016-election-economy-first.html" target="_blank">long-leading indicator methodology</a> outlined by New Deal democrat (NDD) in 2015. These indicators are designed to spot a recession about a year in advance.We find that the odds of a recession are rising. The lights on our recession indicator panel are not red, but they are flickering. In addition, recession risks are rising because of the looming trade war. Technical conditions are also reflective of these risks. Investors should therefore adopt a cautious view of equities.

In the past few months, there has been a cacophony of voices calling for a recession or significant slowdown in 2020, such as Ben Bernanke (via Bloomberg) and Ray Dalio (via Business Insider). Bloomberg reported that two-thirds of business economists expect a recession by the end of 2020.How close is the U.S. economy to a recession? We answer that question using the long-leading indicator methodology outlined by New Deal democrat (NDD) in 2015. These indicators are designed to spot a recession about a year in advance.We find that the odds of a recession are rising. The lights on our recession indicator panel are not red, but they are flickering. In addition, recession risks are rising because of the looming trade war. Technical conditions are also reflective of these risks. Investors should therefore adopt a cautious view of equities.

A Recession in 2020?