Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Generative AI and the US Economy: Another 1999-Style Party?

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Concerns about excessive investment activity have occurred before in US economic and financial history. Relative to GDP, the current AI-related infrastructure spending binge already exceeds the internet bubble. </li>
<li>Unlike Japan in the late 1980s, US AI-related infrastructure spending has largely been financed by free cash flow, but debt funding has been rising, thereby raising some concerns.</li>
<li>Assessing AI's impact on earnings growth is complcated by increased circularity within the ecosystem. Metrics are not showing that US equities are in a bubble similar to the late 1990s.</li>
</ul>


Concerns about excessive investment activity have occurred before in US economic and financial history. Relative to GDP, the current AI-related infrastructure spending binge already exceeds the internet bubble. 
Unlike Japan in the late 1980s, US AI-related infrastructure spending has largely been financed by free cash flow, but debt funding has been rising, thereby raising some concerns.
Assessing AI's impact on earnings growth is complcated by increased circularity within the ecosystem. Metrics are not showing that US equities are in a bubble similar to the late 1990s.


AI Spending Binge Imparts Balance Sheet and Funding Changes on Asset-Light Big Tech