Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Alibaba's Chairman & CEO, Daniel Zang Faces a Downgrade

Ant Group's $6.0bn Buyback Move Casts Doubt on IPO Prospects

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a>'s 4QFY23 OP beat consensus by around RMB 2.5bn (20% beat) through cost cutting, but YoY revenue growth remained sluggish at 2.0%.</li>
<li>Consensus expectations of Alibaba achieving an OP of RMB 150bn by FY25 may be overly optimistic due to declining dominance of Taobao and Tmall, and lack of profitable alternative businesses.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> would need to excel to reach RMB100bn OP, resulting in a high FY+2 EV/OP of 14.0x. This seems steep for a company with minimal earnings growth.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)'s 4QFY23 OP beat consensus by around RMB 2.5bn (20% beat) through cost cutting, but YoY revenue growth remained sluggish at 2.0%.
Consensus expectations of Alibaba achieving an OP of RMB 150bn by FY25 may be overly optimistic due to declining dominance of Taobao and Tmall, and lack of profitable alternative businesses.

Alibaba Group (9988 HK) would need to excel to reach RMB100bn OP, resulting in a high FY+2 EV/OP of 14.0x. This seems steep for a company with minimal earnings growth.


Alibaba 4QFY23: Concerns Surrounding Taobao and Tmall, Disappointing IPO-Bound Cloud & Cainiao