European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Thoughts About the Failed Offer for Allfunds

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Deutsche Börse’s proposed €8.80/share acquisition of Allfunds, supported by exclusivity and strong industrial logic, transforms Allfunds into a strategically synergistic IFS asset, unlocking meaningful cost efficiencies and platform consolidation benefits.</li>
<li>The market-implied 60% deal probability, attractive 8.5% headline spread, and dividend-adjusted 11.5–12.2% return create a compelling merger-arbitrage setup, with limited interloper risk and manageable regulatory scrutiny.</li>
<li>For investors, hedging €4.30 in DB1 stock per Allfunds share (≈1 DB1 short per 52–53 ALLFG long) enables clean exposure to the spread, while long-term value remains strongest in DB1.</li>
</ul>


Deutsche Börse’s proposed €8.80/share acquisition of Allfunds, supported by exclusivity and strong industrial logic, transforms Allfunds into a strategically synergistic IFS asset, unlocking meaningful cost efficiencies and platform consolidation benefits.
The market-implied 60% deal probability, attractive 8.5% headline spread, and dividend-adjusted 11.5–12.2% return create a compelling merger-arbitrage setup, with limited interloper risk and manageable regulatory scrutiny.
For investors, hedging €4.30 in DB1 stock per Allfunds share (≈1 DB1 short per 52–53 ALLFG long) enables clean exposure to the spread, while long-term value remains strongest in DB1.


Allfunds: A High-Conviction Arb With Dividend Carry and DB1-Backed Upside

Allfunds Group

Allfunds: A High-Conviction Arb With Dividend Carry and DB1-Backed Upside