The latest "dot plot" is stale by the time it's published and there's a high degree of uncertainty around its projections. Instead...
What matters more is the Fed’s reaction function to financial crises. We have conducted an event study of how the Fed has reacted to shocks and crises in the past.
In all cases, the Fed took action to stabilize the system. Once stability returned, the Fed withdrew stimulus measures 2–3 months after the event.
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