Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Hopes Betrayed: Asia's Continued Lack of Global Economic Leadership

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

Asia's continued reliance on net exports makes it impossible for the region to assume a leadership role in the global economy. Differing cross-border rates of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts mean the timing of herd immunity will differ, thereby implying a multi-speed global recovery across regions.
Given its structure, significant fiscal stimulus in the US can provide short-term economic growth impetus to the Asia Pacific region, but sustainable recovery will require greater contributions from domestic demand. The speed and success of vaccine rollouts will determine the timing of a credible and sustained recovery in service sector consumer spending in the region.
The lack of Western-style income safety nets in Asia during the pandemic contributed to cautious household spending. Weak service sector hiring in China has produced a high level of precautionary saving amongst workers who were laid-off last year, thereby highlighting the usefulness of safety nets and the need to accelerate vaccine rollouts.
While Asia Pacific countries cannot replicate the massive easing of fiscal policy in the US, settings are unlikely to change insofar as to adversely impact aggregate demand, while central banks will henceforth be expected to do the bulk of the heavy lifting to support growth. Central banks will not contemplate altering their policy settings before the Fed changes its course, while rising US Treasury yields will raise capital flight and devaluation risks for the region.
Downside risks for the Asia Pacific region include slow vaccine rollouts and herd immunity, as well as lack of improvement in bilateral relations between the US and China. Potential upside forces for the region are largely exogenous and unpredictable, thereby making placing big bets on a blow-out economic recovery for the region difficult to justify.

Asia's continued reliance on net exports makes it impossible for the region to assume a leadership role in the global economy. Differing cross-border rates of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts mean the timing of herd immunity will differ, thereby implying a multi-speed global recovery across regions.
Given its structure, significant fiscal stimulus in the US can provide short-term economic growth impetus to the Asia Pacific region, but sustainable recovery will require greater contributions from domestic demand. The speed and success of vaccine rollouts will determine the timing of a credible and sustained recovery in service sector consumer spending in the region.
The lack of Western-style income safety nets in Asia during the pandemic contributed to cautious household spending. Weak service sector hiring in China has produced a high level of precautionary saving amongst workers who were laid-off last year, thereby highlighting the usefulness of safety nets and the need to accelerate vaccine rollouts.
While Asia Pacific countries cannot replicate the massive easing of fiscal policy in the US, settings are unlikely to change insofar as to adversely impact aggregate demand, while central banks will henceforth be expected to do the bulk of the heavy lifting to support growth. Central banks will not contemplate altering their policy settings before the Fed changes its course, while rising US Treasury yields will raise capital flight and devaluation risks for the region.
Downside risks for the Asia Pacific region include slow vaccine rollouts and herd immunity, as well as lack of improvement in bilateral relations between the US and China. Potential upside forces for the region are largely exogenous and unpredictable, thereby making placing big bets on a blow-out economic recovery for the region difficult to justify.    

Asia Pacific Growth Outlook: Critical to Boost Consumer Spending as US Fiscal Stimulus Fades in 2022