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bullish
Before You Call Artificial Intelligence a Bubble, Understand that Bubbles Are Rare!
634 Views01 Jun 2023 06:52
SUMMARY
- A comprehensive empirical study by Goetzmann (2016) covering more than 3000 stock market-years in 21 stock markets between 1900 and 2014 reveals that bubbles are incredibly scarce.
- The likelihood of the stock market declining by 50% (crash) within a year after a rise of 100% or more (boom) in the previous year is only just 4%.
- Interestingly, stock prices rose by another 100% after a rise of 100% or more (boom) in over 8% of the cases. These findings will not resonate well with perpetual bears.
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