bullish

Dollar Index

Beyond the Current Account Deficit: What Drives the US Dollar?

Kok has highlighted this Insight as a Top Pick
485 Views04 Oct 2025 15:22
SUMMARY
  • Investors are under-appreciating a sharp narrowing of the US current account deficit in 2Q25. This is a sustainable trend as net government borrowing normalises to around 5% of GDP
  • The US is not losing its ability to attract long term capital flows. In 2Q25, net foreign direct investment reached $121b, the strongest since 3Q22
  • The result is a sharp improvement in the basic balance. Investors should monitor this indicator to assess whether Trump's policy mix of fiscal consolidation and re-shoring is succeeding or not
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