Bulgaria - The European Union's Ugliest Duckling

Frontier and emerging markets (Vietnam)

Dylan Waller

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Bulgaria Health care / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Growth Outlook: Bulgaria's economic growth has begun to pick up since the beginning of 2019, though growth will still remain below 4% during the next 2 years.  The World Bank projects that growth will be around 3.6% in 2019 and 2020.Bulgaria has also been able to maintain a current account surplus but the decline in export growth has narrowed this surplus (the IMF projects the current account surplus will narrow to roughly 2% of GDP this year).  The current account balance reached 4.8% of projected GDP as of the Jan.-Nov 2018 period.Most of the risks for Bulgaria includes external risks, including increased protectionism from the United States and the poor performance of Turkey’s economy.  Furthermore, a general slowdown in European countries and the United States would not bode well for Bulgaria.Bulgaria’s pharmaceutical market has enjoyed steady growth and has been resilient during poor economic cycles: Bulgaria’s pharmaceutical market grew by 6.5% to reach $1.8 billion during 2016 compared to only $1.4 billion in 2011.  The market was able to grow by around 7-10% annually between 2007-2017 according to Export.gov, which was notably higher than the country’s GDP growth.  This insight mentions Sopharma Group, which is a pharmaceutical company and the largest listed company in the stock market.  The outlook for Bulgaria's economy and stock market is neutral, but Sopharma is an interesting name to monitor ( liquidity is a huge barrier).

Growth Outlook: Bulgaria's economic growth has begun to pick up since the beginning of 2019, though growth will still remain below 4% during the next 2 years.  The World Bank projects that growth will be around 3.6% in 2019 and 2020.Bulgaria has also been able to maintain a current account surplus but the decline in export growth has narrowed this surplus (the IMF projects the current account surplus will narrow to roughly 2% of GDP this year).  The current account balance reached 4.8% of projected GDP as of the Jan.-Nov 2018 period.Most of the risks for Bulgaria includes external risks, including increased protectionism from the United States and the poor performance of Turkey’s economy.  Furthermore, a general slowdown in European countries and the United States would not bode well for Bulgaria.Bulgaria’s pharmaceutical market has enjoyed steady growth and has been resilient during poor economic cycles: Bulgaria’s pharmaceutical market grew by 6.5% to reach $1.8 billion during 2016 compared to only $1.4 billion in 2011.  The market was able to grow by around 7-10% annually between 2007-2017 according to Export.gov, which was notably higher than the country’s GDP growth.   This insight mentions Sopharma Group, which is a pharmaceutical company and the largest listed company in the stock market.  The outlook for Bulgaria's economy and stock market is neutral, but Sopharma is an interesting name to monitor ( liquidity is a huge barrier).

Bulgaria Macro Update: Notes on the Pharmaceutical Industry