Cross-Asset Thematic Strategy, Edelscourt

Albert Maass

Albert brings over 30 years of global financial industry experience, with a track record spanning the UK, Americas, and Asia. His expertise covers a wide range of asset classes, managing portfolios that have included hedge funds, reinsurance, credit, and private equity.

Over the course of his career, Albert has worked with leading institutions such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Nomura International, HVB, and the Central Bank of Chile. He is a certified Financial Risk Manager (FRM) and holds a degree in Business and Economics from the Universidad Católica de Chile.

Cross-Asset Thematic Strategy

Edelscourt

Established in 2014, Edelscourt combines cutting-edge technology with deep industry knowledge. We specialise in risk management solutions for a diverse range of clients, from financial institutions to family offices.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Does the yield curve predict the US economy? Debate continues if the difference between short and long-term rates reliably indicates future GDP growth or if it's just a coincidence.</li>
<li>If the yield curve spread accurately forecasted changes in GDP growth, it could help predict booms and recessions, offering a more informed basis for economic policy and decision-making.</li>
<li>An updated Granger causality analysis provides new evidence to settle the debate between correlation and causation.</li>
</ul>


Does the yield curve predict the US economy? Debate continues if the difference between short and long-term rates reliably indicates future GDP growth or if it's just a coincidence.
If the yield curve spread accurately forecasted changes in GDP growth, it could help predict booms and recessions, offering a more informed basis for economic policy and decision-making.
An updated Granger causality analysis provides new evidence to settle the debate between correlation and causation.


Can the Yield Curve Predict the Future of the Economy? An Updated Analysis Using Granger Causality