Carclo - FY19 likely to be a game of two halves

As flagged in the October trading update, Carclo’s H119 performance was adversely affected by delays in commencing three medical programmes. Moreover, all of the new vehicle production programmes planned for FY19, with their attendant start-up inefficiencies, started during the first six months. While these events held back first-half performance, they augur well for a second-half recovery. We therefore leave our estimates broadly unchanged. The reduction in our indicative valuation from144-153p to 125-133p reflects a 24% drop in the prospective P/E multiple for automotive peers since June, rather than a change in Carclo’s investment proposition.