European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Inocsa Secures 98% of Catalana Occidente; Squeeze-Out Now in Play

Policy Shift: Inocsa Makes a Premium Move on Catalana Occidente

Underwritten and Unlisted: GCO’s Delisting Looks Inevitable

Event-Driven

Grupo Catalana Occidente Sa / Event-Driven

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Modest sweetener, same outcome: Inocsa raises its GCO offer to €49.75 (+€0.75/share) after strong sector performance, ensuring fairness optics but still below intrinsic value and peer valuations.</li>
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Timeline drift, limited spread: Seven-month process extended by repeated dividend-driven adjustments; expected settlement in early Jan-2026, offering ~1% gross spread and ~4.9% annualized return for arbitrageurs.</li>
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Delisting inevitable: With 62% control and minimal regulatory risk, Inocsa’s bid remains near-certain; minority shareholders face diminishing upside and liquidity risk once Catalana Occidente exits the exchange.</li>
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Modest sweetener, same outcome: Inocsa raises its GCO offer to €49.75 (+€0.75/share) after strong sector performance, ensuring fairness optics but still below intrinsic value and peer valuations.

Timeline drift, limited spread: Seven-month process extended by repeated dividend-driven adjustments; expected settlement in early Jan-2026, offering ~1% gross spread and ~4.9% annualized return for arbitrageurs.

Delisting inevitable: With 62% control and minimal regulatory risk, Inocsa’s bid remains near-certain; minority shareholders face diminishing upside and liquidity risk once Catalana Occidente exits the exchange.


Catalana Occidente – Inocsa Sweetens Offer: A Modest Bump Amid Sector Outperformance