Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Neil Glynn, FCA, CFA, is Founder and Managing Director of AIR Control Tower.

Neil has near to 20 years of aviation experience, based in Dublin and London, including the roles of Credit Officer at CIT Aerospace and head of global transport equity research at Credit Suisse. 

The quality of Neil’s industry-leading research and forecasting across the value chain is long-recognized by investors (long track record of top tier placing in Institutional investor European Transport analyst survey; ranked #3 in last survey in 2021) and corporates (regular management team/board workshops, conference presentations around the world). 

Neil has also led 10 initial public offering (IPO) processes, assessing the investment case of corporates seeking to attract new investors.

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

Cathay Pacific - Reported Air China Interest Prompts Assessment of Structural Disadvantages

Japanese Airlines – ANA’s Margin Outperformance Poses Big Questions for JAL

Cathay Pacific – Rising Inflationary Pressure Expedites Earnings Normalisation

APAC Airline Sector – Cost Inflation Management Differentials Crucial as Cargo Yields Normalise

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

Cathay Pacific Airways / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Cathay Pacific's strong end to 2023 has been well flagged but we think expectations are too low for 2024.</li>
<li>ANA, JAL and Korean Air have each seen unit pax revenue momentum accelerate into calendar 4Q23 which bodes well for 2024 prospects, particularly as manpower challenges slow capacity restoration.</li>
<li>Our 2024 EBITDAR is 5% ahead of consensus while we are 11% ahead at the net income level.</li>
</ul>


Cathay Pacific's strong end to 2023 has been well flagged but we think expectations are too low for 2024.
ANA, JAL and Korean Air have each seen unit pax revenue momentum accelerate into calendar 4Q23 which bodes well for 2024 prospects, particularly as manpower challenges slow capacity restoration.
Our 2024 EBITDAR is 5% ahead of consensus while we are 11% ahead at the net income level.


Cathay Pacific – Strong Pax Momentum Suggests 2024 Can Outperform Expectations