Asian Economist

Kok Peng Chan

Kok Peng has over three decades of experience covering the global economy and financial markets. He spent the bulk of his career in top global investment banks where he covered the Asian economies and stockmarkets. During this period, he travelled extensively to meet clients that cut across business lines. They include fund managers, hedge fund managers, private banking clients, corporates, and fixed income investors in the US, Europe, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and Australia. He is well liked by clients because of his commitment to a consistent framework and the ability to explain economic and financial developments with actionable investment recommendations. As a result he was ranked among top 3 economists in many surveys and polls conducted by financial magazines.

China: Winning the Trade War While Still Imploding Domestically

Rising US-China Trade Tensions Shifts Focus to the Next Five-Year Plan

China: Still on the Edge of a Financial Precipice, Kept Afloat by US Distraction

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China’s low consumption ratio is driven by structural constraints—stagnant labour income, early and rapid household leverage, heavy debt burdens, declining workforce and persistent precautionary saving</li>
<li>Such constraints on household consumption mean recent policy announcements to expand overall domestic demand will take longer than expected to deliver a durable consumption-driven Chinese economy</li>
<li>China’s ten-year bond yield appears to recognise this reality, pricing in persistently weak nominal growth and subdued domestic demand rather than a consumption-driven reacceleration. It is now lower than Japan</li>
</ul>


China’s low consumption ratio is driven by structural constraints—stagnant labour income, early and rapid household leverage, heavy debt burdens, declining workforce and persistent precautionary saving
Such constraints on household consumption mean recent policy announcements to expand overall domestic demand will take longer than expected to deliver a durable consumption-driven Chinese economy
China’s ten-year bond yield appears to recognise this reality, pricing in persistently weak nominal growth and subdued domestic demand rather than a consumption-driven reacceleration. It is now lower than Japan


China’s Consumption Push: Will It Take Off?