Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Global Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Extensive first-hand mine and plant visits spanning India, Australia, China, the US, and the UK.
Hundreds of buy-side engagements across major global financial hubs in Asia, North America, and Europe. Also led a comprehensive client tour of China to deepen industry understanding.

Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>CSC saw peak profitability in 2021, but margins and earnings have since contracted sharply, with EBITDA/ton down to just US$15 in Q1 2025.</li>
<li>It now targets US$3.1–4.7B capex over 5 years toward green steel, premium products, and ASEAN expansion, though execution risks remain high.</li>
<li>Despite modest growth and high leverage, CSC trades at 15x EV/EBITDA and over US$1,500 EV/ton—well above regional peers.</li>
</ul>


CSC saw peak profitability in 2021, but margins and earnings have since contracted sharply, with EBITDA/ton down to just US$15 in Q1 2025.
It now targets US$3.1–4.7B capex over 5 years toward green steel, premium products, and ASEAN expansion, though execution risks remain high.
Despite modest growth and high leverage, CSC trades at 15x EV/EBITDA and over US$1,500 EV/ton—well above regional peers.


China Steel Corporation (TWSE: 2002) – Premium Valuations Amid Structural Constraints