TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

I have over 20 years’ experience investing in the TMT and Consumer sectors, almost entirely on the buyside. Started at Bernstein covering software in 2001, moved to the buyside at Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) in 2003, covering hardware, software, and media. 

After getting an MBA at NYU in 2008 and a CFA, I spent 8 years at Coburn Ventures (a market neutral TMT/Consumer hedge fund). In 2015, I joined Deimos Asset Management, a low net multi-strat, where I managed a  TMT/Consumer portfolio.

I've spent the past few years at Obex Capital Management providing independent investment research to TMT and Consumer investors.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT Quick Hits: DIS/Cricket Rights, GOOGL/TTD/EU

Loeb Backed Down Quickly…But Is Disney Really in Good Shape?

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Across the board miss as DTC losses peak, park margins weaken, and linear likely to fall off a cliff. </li>
<li>Big FY2023 guide down on revenues (HSD vs. LDD previously) and OI growth (HSD vs. ~25% consensus previously). </li>
<li>Disney profitability lower for longer as macro headwinds on parks, accelerating cord cutting, and pushed out D+ profitability means OI likely down $2B in both FY23-24.</li>
</ul>


Across the board miss as DTC losses peak, park margins weaken, and linear likely to fall off a cliff. 
Big FY2023 guide down on revenues (HSD vs. LDD previously) and OI growth (HSD vs. ~25% consensus previously). 
Disney profitability lower for longer as macro headwinds on parks, accelerating cord cutting, and pushed out D+ profitability means OI likely down $2B in both FY23-24.


Disney 4Q2022: Cord Cutting Exacerbating DTC Losses

The Walt Disney Co

Disney 4Q2022: Cord Cutting Exacerbating DTC Losses