Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Disinflationary news from May’s flash inflation release was confirmed in the final print, although a rebound in some underlying inflation measures damped the initial signal.</li><li>Resurgent oil prices could rapidly reverse the dovish space expanded by past falls. Our forecast bumps around the target through 2026 and 2027, settling at 2%.</li><li>Other forecasts are a little lower and only suffer a slight bias to be exceeded. The ECB can remain reassured by an outlook close to 2% without cuts, and not deliver any more.</li></ul><p></p>

Disinflationary news from May’s flash inflation release was confirmed in the final print, although a rebound in some underlying inflation measures damped the initial signal.Resurgent oil prices could rapidly reverse the dovish space expanded by past falls. Our forecast bumps around the target through 2026 and 2027, settling at 2%.Other forecasts are a little lower and only suffer a slight bias to be exceeded. The ECB can remain reassured by an outlook close to 2% without cuts, and not deliver any more.

EA Inflation Predictably Near The Target