Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Downside activity risks have reduced, while the inflation outlook holds steady, keeping the ECB in its “good place” despite an implied shift up in the balance of risks.</li><li>Upside risks while inflation is seen settling at 2% would imply a hawkish bias, which the ECB isn’t ready to convey. But the skew may have swung within insignificant margins.</li><li>We still expect no more ECB rate cuts this cycle. If underlying inflation fails to slow as hoped, the ECB’s balanced bias could easily break into a hawkish one in 2026.</li></ul><p></p>

Downside activity risks have reduced, while the inflation outlook holds steady, keeping the ECB in its “good place” despite an implied shift up in the balance of risks.Upside risks while inflation is seen settling at 2% would imply a hawkish bias, which the ECB isn’t ready to convey. But the skew may have swung within insignificant margins.We still expect no more ECB rate cuts this cycle. If underlying inflation fails to slow as hoped, the ECB’s balanced bias could easily break into a hawkish one in 2026.

ECB: Less Downside From The Good Place