Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>EA unemployment’s rise to 6.3% matched the ECB forecast underlying recent hawkish guidance and narrowly relied on Italy, which offset a broad tightening elsewhere.</li><li>Unemployment is still broadly lower than a year ago and pre-pandemic. That will not help a disinflationary move along the Phillips Curve, let alone shift it lower.</li><li>Without a disinflationary surprise, the ECB should not be shocked into a rate cut as it describes the prevailing setting as well-positioned. We still see no more ECB cuts.</li></ul><p></p>

EA unemployment’s rise to 6.3% matched the ECB forecast underlying recent hawkish guidance and narrowly relied on Italy, which offset a broad tightening elsewhere.Unemployment is still broadly lower than a year ago and pre-pandemic. That will not help a disinflationary move along the Phillips Curve, let alone shift it lower.Without a disinflationary surprise, the ECB should not be shocked into a rate cut as it describes the prevailing setting as well-positioned. We still see no more ECB cuts.

ECB Still Squeezed By Unemployment