Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Negotiated wages grew by 4.1% in Q4, slowing sharply from Q3, but little changed on the average from 2024 and 2023. It is not yet on an obvious path of improvement.</li><li>Broader labour costs have also slowed and are suggesting unit labour cost growth of around 4% y-o-y, although that would mark an abrupt rise in the quarterly pace.</li><li>Labour costs are growing too fast to be consistent with a sustainable return to the ECB’s inflation target. We expect its easing cycle to end in H1, much earlier than priced.</li></ul><p></p>

Negotiated wages grew by 4.1% in Q4, slowing sharply from Q3, but little changed on the average from 2024 and 2023. It is not yet on an obvious path of improvement.Broader labour costs have also slowed and are suggesting unit labour cost growth of around 4% y-o-y, although that would mark an abrupt rise in the quarterly pace.Labour costs are growing too fast to be consistent with a sustainable return to the ECB’s inflation target. We expect its easing cycle to end in H1, much earlier than priced.

Euro Area Wage Growth Is Too Hot