Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

Financial markets pounced on recent comments by Fed Chair Powell that the policy rate could be lowered if trade-induced downside economic risks increase, but he was not stating anything new about the systematic manner in which US monetary policy is formulated. Crucially, policy rate reductions will require data consistency.
Recent US economic data has been mixed, notably signs of an emerging dichotomy between a slowing manufacturing sector and strengthening private service activity.
After a sub-par Employment Situation report for May, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will closely monitor the state-by-state dispersion of any increases in initial unemployment claims to detect signs of trade-induced weakness in the manufacturing sector. The 30-31 July FOMC meeting is the earliest credible opportunity for a reduction in the federal funds rate if data supports trade-induced economic weakness.
The Fed has struggled to normalise policy settings since the Great Recession due to inconsistent assistance from fiscal policy in supporting aggregate demand, as well as unfavourable long-term potential GDP dynamics.
The Trump Administration's decision to ease fiscal policy ahead of resolving trade disputes means the Fed has little or no choice but to ease policy to bailout any prospective weakening in the economy stemming from ill-conceived protectionism.

Financial markets pounced on recent comments by Fed Chair Powell that the policy rate could be lowered if trade-induced downside economic risks increase, but he was not stating anything new about the systematic manner in which US monetary policy is formulated. Crucially, policy rate reductions will require data consistency.
Recent US economic data has been mixed, notably signs of an emerging dichotomy between a slowing manufacturing sector and strengthening private service activity.
After a sub-par Employment Situation report for May, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will closely monitor the state-by-state dispersion of any increases in initial unemployment claims to detect signs of trade-induced weakness in the manufacturing sector. The 30-31 July FOMC meeting is the earliest credible opportunity for a reduction in the federal funds rate if data supports trade-induced economic weakness.
The Fed has struggled to normalise policy settings since the Great Recession due to inconsistent assistance from fiscal policy in supporting aggregate demand, as well as unfavourable long-term potential GDP dynamics.
The Trump Administration's decision to ease fiscal policy ahead of resolving trade disputes means the Fed has little or no choice but to ease policy to bailout any prospective weakening in the economy stemming from ill-conceived protectionism.

Fed Still Requires Compliant Data to Engineer Insurance Policy Rate Cut