Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>Persistent pricing pressure in Brazil limits margin recovery, while reduced future investments highlight challenges; stronger trade-defense measures will be needed to restore competitiveness.</li>
<li>North America remains Gerdau’s key earnings driver, supported by tariffs, healthy construction demand, and a resilient balance sheet that underpins credit strength.</li>
<li>We maintain Neutral, seeing limited spread-compression potential; we find greater value in the 2044s for their yield pickup and see overall valuations close to fair value across the curve.</li>
</ul>


Persistent pricing pressure in Brazil limits margin recovery, while reduced future investments highlight challenges; stronger trade-defense measures will be needed to restore competitiveness.
North America remains Gerdau’s key earnings driver, supported by tariffs, healthy construction demand, and a resilient balance sheet that underpins credit strength.
We maintain Neutral, seeing limited spread-compression potential; we find greater value in the 2044s for their yield pickup and see overall valuations close to fair value across the curve.


Gerdau 3Q25: North America Drives Earnings as Brazil Margins Compress

Gerdau S.A.

Gerdau 3Q25: North America Drives Earnings as Brazil Margins Compress