Azul – Cash Flow Overhang Requires Structural Solution

Brazilian Airlines – Liability Management Even More Crucial Following BRL Weakness

GOL - Ramifications of GOL's Chapter 11 Filing

GOL - Chapter 11 Filing In a Bid to Ensure Financial Sustainability

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

Gol Linhas Aereas Intel-Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We cut our 2024 EBITDAR by 19% following a disappointing May revenue performance at GOL.</li>
<li>We also emphasise that plans to double 2023 EBITDAR by 2029 are highly ambitious in the context of Brazilian competitors LATAM and Azul margin progress since 2019.</li>
<li>GOL, undergoing Chapter 11, is the subject of much consolidation focus with an Azul codeshare and parent Abra discussing combining GOL with Azul. Leverage plans render effective consolidation more difficult. </li>
</ul>


We cut our 2024 EBITDAR by 19% following a disappointing May revenue performance at GOL.
We also emphasise that plans to double 2023 EBITDAR by 2029 are highly ambitious in the context of Brazilian competitors LATAM and Azul margin progress since 2019.
GOL, undergoing Chapter 11, is the subject of much consolidation focus with an Azul codeshare and parent Abra discussing combining GOL with Azul. Leverage plans render effective consolidation more difficult. 


GOL – Short-Term Challenges to Navigate Before Delivering on Complicated Long-Term Pitch