Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

All-round Multi-Asset investor. Former head of a EUR 5 billion multi-asset fund range. Speaker. Charts & Frameworks. Founder of True Insights, a provider of independent investment research, trade ideas & well-diversified portfolios.
https://true-insights.net/

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Silicon Valley Bank: Some Observations on Contagion, Moral Hazard, and Monetary Policy

Weekly Market Monitor (10) - Central Banks Intervene to Fight Contagion Risks

Monetary Policy Update! Federal Reserve Unlikely to Hike Rates in March

TINA Has Left, Bond Yields Shine, and Cash Is King!

Yields Up? Add Another 10% Downside for Stocks!

Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?

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Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The swiftly growing number of participants in the Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey signaling tighter lending standards for Commercial and Industrial loans suggests a 2023 default rate above 6%.</li>
<li>Improved high yield quality and still low interest expenses put our 2023 default estimate at 5.0%, with potential contagion risk coming from the CMBS market.</li>
<li>In any case, spreads do not reflect a higher default rate, let alone a recession, and remain too low to provide value. Underweight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-iboxx-high-yield-corporate-bond-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27948:1" rel="noopener">High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG US)</a> </li>
</ul>


The swiftly growing number of participants in the Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey signaling tighter lending standards for Commercial and Industrial loans suggests a 2023 default rate above 6%.
Improved high yield quality and still low interest expenses put our 2023 default estimate at 5.0%, with potential contagion risk coming from the CMBS market.
In any case, spreads do not reflect a higher default rate, let alone a recession, and remain too low to provide value. Underweight High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG US) 


High Yield Bonds: Defaults Rising to 5.0% but Spreads in Lalaland