IRLAB Therapeutics — Pirepemat stumbles in Phase IIb study

IRLAB has announced top-line results for its Phase IIb trial assessing pirepemat’s potential to improve balance and reduce falls in Parkinson’s disease (PD-Falls). The primary endpoint was the change in patients’ fall rates, and while the high-dose 600mg group showed a 42% reduction, the effect was not statistically significant compared to placebo. A meaningful improvement in cognitive impairment was also observed in the 600mg group, although this did not achieve statistical significance either. IRLAB will conduct a detailed review of the study data before making a decision on next steps for the programme. Reflecting the increased uncertainty, and pending release of the full data set, we have reduced our probability of success (PoS) for pirepemat to 10% (from 30% previously) and pushed out the expected launch timeline by a year, to 2030. Our valuation resets to SEK3.3bn or SEK63.3/share (from SEK5.0bn or SEK97.1/share previously).