Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Global Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Extensive first-hand mine and plant visits spanning India, Australia, China, the US, and the UK.
Hundreds of buy-side engagements across major global financial hubs in Asia, North America, and Europe. Also led a comprehensive client tour of China to deepen industry understanding.

Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

Jindal Stainless (JSL): Monopoly Strength Supports Growth—Accumulate on Weakness

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Management has lowered its volume and margin guidance over the last few quarters even as they have gradually lowered their export share to less than 10%.</li>
<li>Despite a 40% drop from its high over the last few months JDSL trades at premium to its historic valuations. Significant investments in Indonesia to raise capacity is positive</li>
<li>A 20-25% increase in volumes (through Indonesia investments) over the next 2-3 years coupled with 20% ROIC and Debt &lt;1X EBITDA implies that premium valuations could sustain.</li>
</ul>


Management has lowered its volume and margin guidance over the last few quarters even as they have gradually lowered their export share to less than 10%.
Despite a 40% drop from its high over the last few months JDSL trades at premium to its historic valuations. Significant investments in Indonesia to raise capacity is positive
A 20-25% increase in volumes (through Indonesia investments) over the next 2-3 years coupled with 20% ROIC and Debt &lt;1X EBITDA implies that premium valuations could sustain.


Jindal Stainless: Near-Term Headwinds Appear to Be Well Factored