Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

HCM – Obvious Blowout Is Obvious… Just Not to the Sell Side

HCM – Obvious Upgrade Is Obvious… Just Not to the Sell Side

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Komatsu reported 4QFY22 results on the 28th of April and recorded revenue of ¥787bn (6.2% above consensus) and OP of ¥94.5bn (13.1% above consensus). </li>
<li>They also guided for revenue to increase 7.1% YoY vs. HCM which guided for a 6.3% fall driving a significant and premature share price decline. </li>
<li>The market has corrected some of that fall as it appears to increasingly agree with our call that HCM’s guidance was nonsense conservatism.</li>
</ul>


Komatsu reported 4QFY22 results on the 28th of April and recorded revenue of ¥787bn (6.2% above consensus) and OP of ¥94.5bn (13.1% above consensus). 
They also guided for revenue to increase 7.1% YoY vs. HCM which guided for a 6.3% fall driving a significant and premature share price decline. 
The market has corrected some of that fall as it appears to increasingly agree with our call that HCM’s guidance was nonsense conservatism.


Komatsu – Sensible Top Line Guidance But Margins Too Conservative

Komatsu Ltd

Komatsu – Sensible Top Line Guidance But Margins Too Conservative