European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross spread is 2.62%, implying a solid annualized return of ~22.0% assuming a June closing—an attractive profile given the minimal regulatory and financing risks.</li>
<li>The market is pricing in a ~93.2% probability of deal success, reflecting strong confidence driven by Board support, substantial shareholder backing (36% aligned), and the absence of antitrust red flags.</li>
<li>Challenging but feasible threshold: requires 84.3% of free flaot to tender to reach the 90% acceptance condition and enable squeeze out.</li>
</ul>


Gross spread is 2.62%, implying a solid annualized return of ~22.0% assuming a June closing—an attractive profile given the minimal regulatory and financing risks.
The market is pricing in a ~93.2% probability of deal success, reflecting strong confidence driven by Board support, substantial shareholder backing (36% aligned), and the absence of antitrust red flags.
Challenging but feasible threshold: requires 84.3% of free flaot to tender to reach the 90% acceptance condition and enable squeeze out.


Lab Tested, Market Approved: KKR’s Biotage Bid Under the Microscope